GENEVA, SWITZERLAND (RFD-TV) — Global trade ran hotter than expected in early 2025, and that matters for agriculture’s supply chains.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) now projects merchandise trade to increase by 2.4 percent this year (up from 0.9 percent previously), driven by North American “frontloading” ahead of tariff hikes and a surge in AI-related goods that has consumed ships, ports, and chassis.
South-South commerce also accelerated, adding ballast to demand in emerging feed, food, and fiber markets. However, the outlook cools quickly: 2026 trade growth is trimmed to 0.5 percent as tariffs take effect and inventories unwind, with transport services also expected to slow.
What It Means for Agriculture
The trade pace in 2025 so far has generally supported export movements—though AI hardware has competed for container and port capacity at times—while front-loaded imports likely pulled forward some farm inputs (machinery, parts, packaged goods).
Regional patterns also matter: Asia and Africa are expected to lead export gains in 2025, highlighting opportunities for U.S. grains, oilseeds, meat, and cotton, where price and logistics are competitive. North American exports are viewed as softer, indicating a need to defend market share.
Into 2026, fading frontloading and higher tariffs could temper container availability and shipments, with mixed effects on freight rates and export pacing.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Use 2025’s relative strength to move product and lock logistics; plan for a cooler 2026 with tighter margins on exports, potential rate shifts, and a premium on reliable delivery into growth markets in Asia and Africa.
Lucia Ruano, USMEF’s Central America representative, discusses what is driving demand for U.S. beef and pork in the region.
November 11, 2025 01:30 PM
·
Tyson expects another year of beef-segment losses due to tight cattle supplies, even as chicken, pork, and prepared foods strengthen overall margins.
November 11, 2025 01:26 PM
·
Export strength is concentrated in corn and wheat, while soybeans and sorghum lag, keeping basis and logistics dynamics highly commodity-specific into late fall.
November 11, 2025 11:21 AM
·
Experts highlight the importance of monitoring insecticide resistance in crops and improving disease traceability at livestock shows through RFID technology.
November 10, 2025 12:22 PM
·
Lewie Pugh, with the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association, joined us on Monday’s Market Day Report to share his perspective on what the bill could mean for truckers.
November 10, 2025 11:46 AM
·
Stagger buys and diversifies fertilizer sources — watch CBAM, India’s tenders, and Brazil’s import pace to time urea, phosphate, and potash purchases.
November 07, 2025 11:16 AM
·
Farm CPA Paul Neiffer shares insight into what these new accounts, established in provisions of the Big, Beautiful Bill, could mean for the farm families.
November 06, 2025 02:34 PM
·
While the U.S.-China framework for soybean trade is in place, Ohio farmer Chris Gibbs tells us he will believe it when he sees it.
November 06, 2025 11:38 AM
·
Global nitrogen and phosphate prices remain high despite improved supply fundamentals, with limited Chinese exports and stronger fall applications tightening availability.
November 06, 2025 11:16 AM
·
