GENEVA, SWITZERLAND (RFD-TV) — Global trade ran hotter than expected in early 2025, and that matters for agriculture’s supply chains.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) now projects merchandise trade to increase by 2.4 percent this year (up from 0.9 percent previously), driven by North American “frontloading” ahead of tariff hikes and a surge in AI-related goods that has consumed ships, ports, and chassis.
South-South commerce also accelerated, adding ballast to demand in emerging feed, food, and fiber markets. However, the outlook cools quickly: 2026 trade growth is trimmed to 0.5 percent as tariffs take effect and inventories unwind, with transport services also expected to slow.
What It Means for Agriculture
The trade pace in 2025 so far has generally supported export movements—though AI hardware has competed for container and port capacity at times—while front-loaded imports likely pulled forward some farm inputs (machinery, parts, packaged goods).
Regional patterns also matter: Asia and Africa are expected to lead export gains in 2025, highlighting opportunities for U.S. grains, oilseeds, meat, and cotton, where price and logistics are competitive. North American exports are viewed as softer, indicating a need to defend market share.
Into 2026, fading frontloading and higher tariffs could temper container availability and shipments, with mixed effects on freight rates and export pacing.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Use 2025’s relative strength to move product and lock logistics; plan for a cooler 2026 with tighter margins on exports, potential rate shifts, and a premium on reliable delivery into growth markets in Asia and Africa.
Grain shippers face lower freight values thanks to weak soybean exports and strong rail service, but barge traffic and forward Gulf loadings suggest continued uncertainty as harvest ramps up.
September 17, 2025 04:01 PM
·
Producers may need to prepare for margin pressure in livestock feeding, while dairy farmers could benefit from stronger product demand.
September 16, 2025 12:42 PM
·
Farmers await concrete trade commitments from China. Until then, export prospects for soybeans, corn, and sorghum remain uncertain against strong South American competition.
September 16, 2025 11:04 AM
·
National Sorghum Producers CEO Tim Lust said farmers face a challenging year with strong supply, murky trade conditions, and uncertain access to their largest market: China.
September 15, 2025 01:59 PM
·
U.S. trade talks with China resume, but meat industry leaders say dealing with shifting demand and market uncertainty is nothing new in this side of the ag sector.
September 15, 2025 12:57 PM
·
Tariffs are pushing up input costs, with fertilizer prices rising $100 per ton and machinery costs climbing due to steel and parts duties.
September 15, 2025 12:21 PM
·
American Soybean Association President Caleb Ragland joins us to share his reaction to September’s WASDE and discuss the trade uncertainty between China and his industry.
September 12, 2025 02:13 PM
·
Harvested acres are estimated at 90.0 million, making this year’s corn crop one of the largest since the 1930s.
September 12, 2025 12:38 PM
·
China has been largely absent from U.S. markets lately, but not when it comes to cotton. It’s a buy that, traders say, isn’t surprising given China’s limitations.
September 12, 2025 12:07 PM
·
