GENEVA, SWITZERLAND (RFD-TV) — Global trade ran hotter than expected in early 2025, and that matters for agriculture’s supply chains.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) now projects merchandise trade to increase by 2.4 percent this year (up from 0.9 percent previously), driven by North American “frontloading” ahead of tariff hikes and a surge in AI-related goods that has consumed ships, ports, and chassis.
South-South commerce also accelerated, adding ballast to demand in emerging feed, food, and fiber markets. However, the outlook cools quickly: 2026 trade growth is trimmed to 0.5 percent as tariffs take effect and inventories unwind, with transport services also expected to slow.
What It Means for Agriculture
The trade pace in 2025 so far has generally supported export movements—though AI hardware has competed for container and port capacity at times—while front-loaded imports likely pulled forward some farm inputs (machinery, parts, packaged goods).
Regional patterns also matter: Asia and Africa are expected to lead export gains in 2025, highlighting opportunities for U.S. grains, oilseeds, meat, and cotton, where price and logistics are competitive. North American exports are viewed as softer, indicating a need to defend market share.
Into 2026, fading frontloading and higher tariffs could temper container availability and shipments, with mixed effects on freight rates and export pacing.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Use 2025’s relative strength to move product and lock logistics; plan for a cooler 2026 with tighter margins on exports, potential rate shifts, and a premium on reliable delivery into growth markets in Asia and Africa.
U.S. Trade officials announced new deals with El Salvador, Guatemala, Ecuador, and Argentina, as well as a steep reduction in tariffs on Swiss imports.
November 14, 2025 11:58 AM
·
China’s cost advantage with Brazilian soybeans and vague public messaging leave U.S. export prospects uncertain heading into winter.
November 14, 2025 11:03 AM
·
November 13, 2025 01:28 PM
David Hardin with the Indiana Soybean Alliance discusses USMEF’s push to open new global export markets for both meat and soy-based feed.
November 13, 2025 01:10 PM
·
With the U.S.–Vietnam agreement nearing signature, U.S. cotton, corn, and soybean exporters could lock in new demand lanes just as global supply shifts.
November 13, 2025 11:33 AM
·
The government reopens after 43 days. USDA resumes key reports, weighs farm aid, and watches China’s next move on U.S. soybean purchases.
November 13, 2025 10:58 AM
·
RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney shares insights from a recent study, discusses EV market access in Canada, and highlights other market opportunities top of mind for Canadian producers.
November 12, 2025 03:19 PM
·
USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom shares how recent trade talks are influencing U.S. red meat global sales and the importance of key trade agreements like the USMCA.
November 12, 2025 03:07 PM
·
Winter weather will challenge livestock producers working to rebuild their herds despite harsh conditions.
November 12, 2025 01:20 PM
·
