WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — USDA’s Economic Research Service says the global wheat outlook is tightening as production falls from last year’s record. World wheat production for 2026/27 is forecast to be down by 24.8 million metric tons, though it remains the second-highest on record.
The biggest production decline is in the United States, where drought reduced area and yields. ERS says other major exporters are also lower, including the European Union, Argentina, Russia, Australia, Canada, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.
Trade is expected to contract because exporters have smaller supplies and several importing countries have larger crops. North Africa and the Middle East are seeing better production, with Morocco, Turkey, Iran, and Egypt expected to import less.
Global wheat consumption is also shifting. Feed and residual use are forecast to decline, while food, seed, and industrial use are forecast to grow, driven by India’s larger crop and population.
Ending stocks are projected to decline to 275 million metric tons, with major exporters’ stocks tightening most sharply.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Smaller exporter crops and lower global stocks could keep wheat markets sensitive to weather, trade, and shifts in demand.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
Strong cattle markets are masking ongoing financial stress across crop agriculture.
March 04, 2026 08:00 AM
·
Record ethanol demand continues supporting corn markets and rural economies.
March 04, 2026 06:00 AM
·
Roger McEowen of Washburn University School of Law joined us to discuss key legal and tax issues ranchers should consider as they recover from recent prairie fires across the Southern Plains.
March 03, 2026 01:06 PM
·
China may no longer serve as a consistent anchor market for U.S. cotton exports. Lewis Williamson of HTS Commodities joined us to discuss the factors influencing planting decisions, river conditions, and what producers are considering as they finalize acreage plans for the season.
March 03, 2026 07:00 AM
·
Falling commodity prices and rising costs continue to squeeze farm margins. Kip Jacobs with The Mosaic Company addresses fertilizer market pressures, nutrient use efficiency, and strategies growers can consider to protect their fertilizer investment this season.
March 03, 2026 05:00 AM
·
Weather Swings Shape Early Season Farm Conditions Nationwide
March 02, 2026 02:54 PM
·
