URBANA, Ill. (RFD NEWS) — Farmers may face wider basis swings and higher marketing risk as U.S. grain storage expansion has effectively stopped while crop production continues to grow. Economists at the University of Illinois warn that the imbalance could create bottlenecks across the supply chain from farm bins to export terminals.
From 2000 to 2019, national storage capacity increased about 350 million bushels annually, closely matching production growth. Since 2020, capacity has barely increased—only about 337 million bushels in six years—even as large crops returned. The 2025 harvest pushed storage utilization to some of the highest levels in decades, with on-farm bins about 80 percent full as of December.
Higher utilization increases the risk that transportation disruptions—such as low Mississippi River levels— will amplify local price discounts. Farmers are increasingly carrying more grain on-farm, shifting storage responsibility away from elevators while investment in new infrastructure slows.
Analysts point to higher construction costs, elevated interest rates, and uncertain returns as reasons expansion stalled.
Meat stocks rose seasonally but remain below last year overall, while tighter butter inventories could support dairy prices, and belly stocks warrant close watch for pork markets.
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Strong production and rising stocks may pressure ethanol margins unless demand or exports continue to improve.
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Placements and marketings beat expectations, but declining on-feed totals and feeder constraints keep the supply story supportive for cattle prices into 2026. Dr. Derrell Peel, with Oklahoma State University, joined us to break down cattle-on-feed numbers and provide his broader market outlook.
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Americans for Prosperity Arkansas Director Ryan Norris talks energy infrastructure, regulatory reform, and the role of critical minerals in supporting rural America.
January 23, 2026 01:54 PM
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