Growing Trouble: Farm income drops as debt and machinery prices escalate

Farmers are struggling with low commodity prices and skyrocketing input costs, resulting in debt that is outpacing income across the sector, according to the USDA’s new farm income forecast.

A new farm income forecast from the Economic Research Service (ERS) is out this week, showing a several billion dollar decline from estimates earlier this year. But in a call with farm reporters, U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA) said it’s still too early to tell if farmers will need a bailout.

Farm-Income-Forecast-Sept-2025.png

Farm sector profits forecast to grow in 2025

USDA, Economic Research Service, Farm Income and Wealth Statistics, Data as of Sept. 3, 2025

The income forecast indicates the amount of cash farmers and ranchers have available this year, which is less than the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated in February.

Also, a large number of borrowers are reporting trouble at the farm. New federal numbers show more banks are realizing some loans likely won’t be paid back.

Machinery Costs Break the Bank

Machinery costs are just one input cost that has increased over the last couple of years. Several universities have researchers looking into it, and they’ve found a 10% jump for some models.

Related Stories
The voluntary pledge aims to keep electricity and infrastructure expenses from shifting to rural customers.
Weak hog prices and rising production could reshape China’s demand for imported meat and feed grains.
Dr. Faith Parum discusses fertilizer market conditions, Farm Bureau’s new strategic fertilizer report, and policy options to strengthen the U.S. fertilizer supply chain.
USDA Under Secretary for Trade Luke Lindberg discusses the Port of Seattle’s role in ag exports, meetings with Washington producers, and the administration’s priorities for trade and expanding export opportunities.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Soda discusses her upcoming appearance on the Dirt Diaries podcast with host Kirbe Schnoor about mental health advocacy and Nationwide’s efforts to support the next generation of agriculture leaders.
Farm Bureau economist Dr. Faith Parum joins us to discuss USDA’s latest reports on crop acreage and grain stocks, and how they impact farm margins and trade outlook moving forward.
RealAg Radio Host Shaun Haney joins us to break down the StatCan’s acreage report as traders await similar data from the USDA.
A private acreage estimate points to fewer corn acres and more soybeans ahead of the USDA’s upcoming final acreage report this week.
For farmers and ranchers, the biggest near-term pieces are in the safety net.