KANSAS CITY, Mo. (RFD News) — A number of fertilizers have seen major price increases compared to last year, with economists pointing to global tensions and market uncertainty as major drivers.
Chief Commodities Economist for StoneX Group Inc. Arlan Suderman says fertilizer markets have become heavily driven by headlines, something he does not expect to slow down anytime soon.
“It’s been a headline-driven market. Certainly, each day, the first thing we do is read the latest headlines. I never thought that I would operate by keeping the president of the United States’ social media account open, but that’s what I do, checking it frequently throughout the day, because when President Trump posts something on social media, oftentimes it’s a market-moving affair. When I see a big jump in the market, be it up or down, one of the first things I check is the president’s Truth Social account.”
President Trump has rejected Iran’s latest proposal to end the war, meaning the Strait of Hormuz remains a major supply chain choke point.
Suderman says the issue has become a global concern because many regions rely heavily on energy and fertilizer shipments moving through the corridor.
“Asia, for example, is most dependent on energy and fertilizer coming out of the Strait of Hormuz. Europe would be a close second, and the United States fares the best. We’re least dependent on the Strait of Hormuz, but it is a world market. So, when they’re out of crude oil in Asia, and their cash prices are $160-$170 a barrel, they’re looking at where they can buy it, and in the United States, if it’s only $90 or $100 a barrel, it pays them to try to buy from us.”
Economists say upcoming talks with China could play a role in easing tensions involving Iran. China remains heavily dependent on both Iranian oil supplies and trade routes through the Strait of Hormuz.
