NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — With fewer cattle headed to slaughter, U.S. beef production is holding up better than expected. Economists at Mississippi State University and Texas A&M Agrilife Extension say steers are just heavier. Dressed weights hit 984 pounds in mid-February, above last year. At the same time, total slaughter is down more than 7 percent.
Mike Zuzolo with Global Commodity Analytics and Consulting says that strong corn prices, a firm U.S. dollar, and stock market weakness are weighing on futures.
“I’m afraid we’re going to open this market up to the downside,” Zuzolo said. “If we don’t get that 360 handle back in March, feeders essentially be by the close on Friday. So that’s where the stock market really means a lot to us here. Well, the two biggest headwinds are strong corn and the strength in the dollar, increasing our chances for more imports. Tony, that can’t be good for us right now. But the biggest issue you and I talked a lot about is the stock market. And that the cattle chart, especially the feeder cattle chart, is looking more and more like a double top on a monthly basis.”
Despite that, the cash market is providing some support. Zuzolo says that it could create a short window to stabilize prices.
“We’ve got cash underneath us, supporting us, especially in the fat cattle and to a lesser degree, the feeders, so we really need them to come in as we do the cut outs in the box feed and make the heads turn away from what’s going on in the community,” Zuzolo said. “But we’ve got a window of opportunity here, I think, to do that, but it’s a pretty tight one.”
Analysts say the next few weeks could be critical in determining the direction of both fat and feeder cattle.
U.S. beef production trends in early 2026 show tighter cattle supplies being partially offset by historically heavy carcass weights, a shift carrying important implications for beef markets and producer marketing decisions, according to economists Josh Maples of Mississippi State University and David Anderson of Texas A&M AgriLife Extension.
Steer dressed weights averaged 984 pounds during the second week of February, implying an average live weight near 1,575 pounds, assuming a 62.5 percent dressing percentage. That level exceeds both last year and recent historical averages, continuing a long-term trend toward heavier cattle entering harvest channels.
At the same time, federally inspected cattle slaughter remains sharply lower. Total slaughter during the first two months of 2026 fell 7.3 percent from a year earlier, including declines of 8.6 percent in steers, 6.9 percent in heifers, and 17 percent in beef cows, while dairy cow slaughter increased modestly. Despite fewer animals processed, overall beef production is down only 5.5 percent because added weight is compensating for reduced headcounts.
Operationally, strong fed cattle prices and manageable cost-of-gain conditions are encouraging feedlots to keep cattle on feed longer rather than market lighter animals. The packers continue to need supplies, but have not accelerated the harvest pace enough to reduce weights seasonally.
Looking ahead, analysts say the key market signal will be whether weights eventually decline in line with normal seasonal patterns or remain elevated amid tight inventories.
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