Despite its continuously shrinking cattle herd, U.S. beef production is running a bit higher than expected this year. It has many worried about what is to come.
According to USDA’s Outlook Chairman, Mark Jekanowski, “We raised our steer price forecast for both 2024 and 2025 this month. For 2024, we have a price forecast of $186.68 per hundred weight. We expect that to strengthen further into 2025 with even tighter supplies. So, our current forecast for 2025 is $188 per hundred weight. That would be up $1.32 per hundred weight year-over-year.”
Jekanowski says that outlook is largely dependent on the decisions cattle producers have made over the last three years and are even making now.
“We’re not retaining many heifers to grow the herd. We keep, you know, pulling those cattle in to feed lots to produce beef today instead of beef months and years ahead,” he adds.
Some analysts believe next year’s prices could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back so to speak, finally triggering producers to retain more heifers for herd expansion.
Crop producers face tightening credit and lower incomes, while strong cattle markets continue to stabilize finances in livestock-heavy regions.
November 21, 2025 11:58 AM
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Early Cattle-on-Feed estimates point to slightly tighter cattle supplies, reinforcing the need to monitor prices and timing for winter marketing.
November 21, 2025 10:45 AM
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Removing the 40% duty sharply lowers U.S. beef import costs on beef, coffee, fertilizer and fruit, and restores Brazil’s competitiveness during a period of tight domestic supply.
November 21, 2025 10:30 AM
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Farm CPA Paul Neiffer explains the USDA’s Stage Two Supplemental Disaster Relief Program, including application details, deadlines, and guidance for rural producers.
November 20, 2025 03:34 PM
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CattleCon 2026 kicks off February 3 in Nashville. Kristin Torres with the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association joined RFD-TV to share more about what’s ahead at this year’s event.
November 20, 2025 01:32 PM
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Mary-Thomas Hart, with the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, discusses the latest WOTUS developments and their implications for agriculture.
November 19, 2025 03:05 PM
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