Improving Consumer Confidence Offers Cautious Demand Signal for Agriculture

Improving consumer confidence supports baseline food and fuel demand, but cautious spending limits upside potential for ag markets in 2026.

LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD-TV) — U.S. consumers are ending 2025 with improving confidence but restrained spending habits, a combination that carries mixed implications for farm and ranch demand heading into 2026. According to new survey data from Prosper Insights & Analytics, economic confidence is rebounding from month to month. However, it remains below pre-pandemic levels, suggesting households feel more stable but remain selective in their purchases.

Fuel sensitivity remains a key factor for rural America. While fewer consumers report being hit by rising gasoline prices, more than one-quarter still say fuel costs influence how much they drive, a dynamic that affects ethanol demand, freight movement, and discretionary food spending. Consumers continue to prioritize value — shopping sales, using store brands, and relying on large retailers — a behavior that shapes downstream demand for meat, dairy, and processed grain products.

Spending intentions for the next 90 days are steady but subdued, indicating little near-term growth in discretionary categories. However, easing “needs-only” behavior suggests modest room for demand recovery in food and fuel markets if prices stabilize.

For agriculture, the data point to stability rather than expansion.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Improving consumer confidence supports baseline food and fuel demand, but cautious spending limits upside potential for ag markets in 2026.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
“We find lots of public support when there is a natural disaster, but maybe a little bit less when people think prices are too low.”
“It is really important to me that we continue to defend and elevate and honor all sources of fuel.”
“It sets a common definition for sustainable aviation fuel”

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Farm CPA Paul Neiffer explains the updates to crop insurance subsidies, additional benefits for new farmers, and eligibility considerations for those entering the program.
Higher prices are bringing relief to markets, but rising input costs are putting pressure on the producers.
Regulatory changes may influence farm costs and operations.
Lower hop stocks may support prices in the near term.
Biofuel policy decisions may influence planting economics. Today, March 18, is also National Biodiesel Day.
President Trump issues a 60-day Jones Act waiver to ease fuel shipments amid Middle East tensions disrupting energy markets, while biofuel policy gains focus.