USDA lowered its soybean production forecast, which caused a rally. However, a social media post from the President earlier in the week also shook the market.
Darin Newsom with Barchart says he is not paying much attention to outside noise.
“For people in agriculture to believe that any U.S. President can ‘urge China to change its policy or its trade practice’ is beyond ridiculous, but yet that’s where we were. That’s where we were all Monday session, and now we’ll see what happens. I mean, will sanity return to the market? Probably not.”
Newsom says for him, it all comes down to fundamentals, something he says has not seen much change.
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China-led demand continues to anchor soybean and sorghum exports despite weekly swings.
Clearer 45Z rules favor U.S. oilseeds, but final RFS volumes remain critical to locking in demand.
Economists are also closely watching how policy decisions in Washington could influence markets moving forward. Analysts say deferred futures for corn, soybeans, and wheat suggest markets are operating near break-even levels, not at prices that would encourage expanded production.
Traders say that shift could eventually prompt the USDA to scale back soybean export projections, noting the outlook differs greatly for other grain commodities.
Eliza Petry joins the RFD News team with a strong connection to agriculture and a commitment to covering the people and issues that matter most to rural America.
Corn and soybean exports continue to anchor weekly inspection totals, with China maintaining a visible role, while wheat and sorghum remain more dependent on regional and seasonal demand shifts.
Without additional support, many soybean operations will continue to face financial stress as they prepare for the 2026 crop.
