KANSAS CITY, Mo. (RFD-TV) — Global fertilizer markets are testing new highs even as supply data suggest balance should be improving, says Josh Linville, Vice President of Fertilizer at StoneX.
India’s latest urea tender ended well short of expectations, securing just 430,000 tons against a two-million-ton goal. Low-priced bids drew little seller interest, and traders now expect another tender within weeks for as much as two million additional tons. The shortfall and India’s potential move toward annual guaranteed supply contracts have added fuel to a bullish market already lifted by steady European buying and limited forward sales.
China’s export window remains closed, though its July-to-September shipments of 2.8 million tons already far exceed 2024’s total. Russia’s exports are also robust, and Middle East output is stabilizing, yet global nitrogen prices continue to climb.
In North America, fall ammonia (NH₃) applications are strong on favorable weather and high corn acreage projections, while urea and UAN supplies stay tight amid downtime and low inventories.
Phosphate markets show similar tension. China’s export approvals expired on October 15 with no extension, likely cutting its annual shipments to under 4.5 million tons from a normal 8–10 million. Combined with weak North American production and import limits, that drop keeps prices firm. Strong U.S. yields are forcing farmers to replace more nutrients than expected, boosting demand just as supplies run thin. Linville cautions that, in today’s phosphate market, hours — not days — can determine whether a product is available.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Global nitrogen and phosphate prices remain high despite improved supply fundamentals, with limited Chinese exports and stronger fall applications tightening availability.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
Water access—not acreage alone—is driving where irrigation expands or contracts.
December 07, 2025 12:00 PM
·
Mike Steenhoek, with the Soy Transportation Commission, shares his outlook on current grain stocks and transportation lines amid bumper crops filling bins across the United States.
December 05, 2025 02:18 PM
·
American soybean and corn leaders, along with Canada’s AgriFood sector, testified before the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office in support of the trade pact between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada.
December 05, 2025 12:29 PM
·
Working capital is tightening for crop farms, increasing reliance on operating loans even as land values steady in the broader sector.
December 04, 2025 02:59 PM
·
Higher ocean freight raises export costs just as global grain competition intensifies.
December 04, 2025 02:50 PM
·
Buying a real Christmas tree directly supports U.S. farmers facing rising import competition, long production cycles, and weather-driven risks.
December 04, 2025 11:02 AM
·
Strong plant output and rising exports contrast with softer domestic blending demand, suggesting margins are poised for volatility.
December 04, 2025 10:43 AM
·
Milk output is rising, but steep drops in Class I–IV prices are tightening margins heading into 2026.
December 04, 2025 07:00 AM
·
Tight cattle supplies continue to drive lower beef output despite heavier weights.
December 04, 2025 05:00 AM
·
