USDA lowered its soybean production forecast, which caused a rally. However, a social media post from the President earlier in the week also shook the market.
Darin Newsom with Barchart says he is not paying much attention to outside noise.
“For people in agriculture to believe that any U.S. President can ‘urge China to change its policy or its trade practice’ is beyond ridiculous, but yet that’s where we were. That’s where we were all Monday session, and now we’ll see what happens. I mean, will sanity return to the market? Probably not.”
Newsom says for him, it all comes down to fundamentals, something he says has not seen much change.
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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated this week that the government will intervene to help, following China’s withdrawal from the U.S. soybean market. One trader says the industry will remain in a holding pattern until Tuesday.
University of Illinois Ag Economist Gary Schnitker says early projections indicate soybeans will be more profitable than corn in 2026.
Trump’s upcoming talks raise hopes for U.S. soybeans, but China’s record purchases from Brazil and Argentina show America’s market share remains under heavy pressure.
Farmers face tighter barge capacity and higher freight costs during peak harvest.
Bigger-than-expected corn and wheat stocks are bearish for prices, while soybean figures were neutral. Farmers may face additional price pressure as harvest accelerates.
“MAKE SOYBEANS, AND OTHER ROW CROPS, GREAT AGAIN!”
“American soybean farmers—who are already reeling from your sweeping tariffs—deserve better.”
Farmers will need to closely monitor forecasts if the regulatory changes are implemented, as temperature cutoffs will replace fixed spray dates.
Higher domestic rail tariffs and mixed capacity shifts will influence grain movement this harvest. Strong corn exports provide momentum, but logistics costs remain a critical factor.
