USDA lowered its soybean production forecast, which caused a rally. However, a social media post from the President earlier in the week also shook the market.
Darin Newsom with Barchart says he is not paying much attention to outside noise.
“For people in agriculture to believe that any U.S. President can ‘urge China to change its policy or its trade practice’ is beyond ridiculous, but yet that’s where we were. That’s where we were all Monday session, and now we’ll see what happens. I mean, will sanity return to the market? Probably not.”
Newsom says for him, it all comes down to fundamentals, something he says has not seen much change.
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“Those could’ve easily been our beans going over there. It goes to show that if that opportunity is there, China would be willing to buy.”
Strong corn exports are anchoring U.S. trade, while soybean sales remain steady, but shipments lag.
U.S. soybean farmers are growing increasingly frustrated by Argentina’s gains in Chinese grain contracts and Trump’s pledge of economic support for the South American ally.
Midwest corn and soy producers are monitoring for disease and lower yields due to the ongoing drought over the last 30 days.
Argentina hopes to boost demand, but critics see the move as a blow to American farmers.
China is making strategic moves by purchasing more soybeans from Argentina and may soon follow the EU and reopen its market to Brazilian chicken exports.
Farmers should watch for soybean export rebounds with harvest, while corn and wheat shipments remain strong and sorghum demand struggles.
Rollins says the new trade relationship with Taiwan, which is committed to buying a significant amount of U.S. soy, could not come at a better time for farmers facing financial strain.
