Managing Market Volatility and Risk as Long-Term Farm Borrowing Costs Remain High into 2026

Tony Adkins with Specialty Risk Insurance addresses current market challenges for farmers and ranchers and offers strategies to help producers navigate risk.

Melissa_Eshelman_12_28_19_USA_IA_Eshelman_Farms_049.jpg

Melissa Eshelman (FarmHER Season 2, Ep. 10)

FarmHER, Inc.

SARASOTA, FLORIDA (RFD NEWS) — Long-term borrowing costs are expected to stay elevated at the farm gate, keeping pressure on financing decisions tied to land, equipment, and expansion.

Matt Erickson with Terrain Ag says inflation expectations, a higher neutral interest rate, and an elevated term premium are preventing long-term Treasury yields from falling much. Even with the Federal Reserve expected to gradually ease short-term rates, long-term yields have remained stubbornly firm.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Prioritize liquidity and discipline in a higher-rate environment.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist

That split matters on the farm. Lower short-term rates may trim some operating loan costs for seed, fertilizer, and other seasonal needs, but higher long-term rates still weigh on machinery purchases, real estate financing, and refinancing opportunities.

The pressure is especially important for capital-intensive crop and livestock operations, where debt costs can shape cash flow, growth plans, and balance sheet flexibility more than day-to-day market swings.

Erickson says strong labor markets, persistent Federal deficits, and steady consumer demand are likely to keep long-term rates higher for longer, favoring caution over aggressive leverage.

Tony Adkins with Specialty Risk Insurance joined us on Tuesday’s Market Day Report from Florida to discuss how insurance solutions are helping farmers manage risk as agricultural producers face both opportunities and challenges with navigating rising input costs and ongoing market volatility.

Adkins shared why he was in Florida and highlighted conversations around agriculture and insurance happening in regions not traditionally considered cattle country. He also addressed current market conditions, including the effects of rising input costs and volatility, as well as how insurance companies are responding to support producers.

Finally, Adkins offered farmers guidance on steps they can take to better manage risk amid uncertain economic conditions.

LEARN MORE: www.specialtyrisk.ag

Related Stories
Modest rate relief may come late in 2026, but borrowing costs are likely to stay elevated.
U.S. Senator Roger Marshall of Kansas discusses expected changes to the 45Z tax credit and what they could mean for agriculture and rural America.
Purdue University Professor of Agricultural Economics Dr. Jim Mintert shares a closer look at farmer sentiment and the key issues shaping the agricultural economy in January.
Stronger U.S.-Guatemala trade rules favor dependable, regionally integrated supply chains — rewarding execution and commitment over cost-only sourcing.
Shrinking slaughter capacity may delay heifer retention, complicating herd rebuilding plans.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Cuba remains a steady, nearby buyer of U.S. poultry, pork, dairy, and staples, but legal and compliance risks could still affect shipping and payment channels.
Agriculture remains a key drag on regional growth amid weak prices and policy uncertainty.
Tight cattle supplies favor poultry and pork while keeping beef margins under pressure.
While access to China remains uncertain, U.S. beef exporters are finding resilience and opportunity in other global markets, which could help maintain industry value and expand export opportunities.
American Farmland Trust shares guidance, research, and policy solutions to help farmers navigate the growing threat of PFAS, or “forever chemicals,” contaminating U.S. farmland.
Dr. Jeffrey Gold, president of the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, joins us on Rural Health Matters to discuss winter safety reminders and preparedness.