Milk Production Rises as Dairy Herd Expansion Continues Nationwide

Higher output keeps milk supplies ample, reinforcing expectations for softer dairy prices even as feed costs remain favorable.

herd of cows in cowshed on dairy farm_Photo by Syda Productions via AdobeStock_132201757.jpg

Photo by Syda Productions via Adobe Stock

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. dairy output strengthened early this year as herd growth and improved productivity pushed supplies higher across major producing regions.

USDA reported January milk production in the 24 major states totaled 19.1 billion pounds — up 3.4 percent from last year. Production per cow averaged 2,082 pounds, 24 pounds higher year-over-year, while cow numbers climbed to 9.15 million head, up 200,000 head from a year ago.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Expanding dairy herds continue to pressure the milk price outlook.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist

California remained the largest producer at 3.51 billion pounds, rising 4.7 percent. Wisconsin followed at 2.75 billion pounds, up 2.1 percent. Texas jumped 7.6 percent to 1.60 billion pounds, while Idaho increased 3.2 percent to 1.54 billion pounds. New York grew 3.4 percent and Michigan rose 3.6 percent. Kansas showed one of the sharpest gains — up 26 percent — while South Dakota rose nearly 11 percent as expansion continues in the Upper Plains dairy corridor.

Some regions declined. New Mexico dropped 3.8 percent, Pennsylvania fell 3.0 percent, and Washington slipped 6.1 percent, reflecting regional cost pressures and herd adjustments.

Higher output keeps milk supplies ample, reinforcing expectations for softer dairy prices even as feed costs remain favorable.

Related Stories
Jake Charleston, with Specialty Risk Insurance, joins us now for an industry update and advice for cattle producers as they consider options for managing the risks of a murky market.
The National Milk Producers Federation will launch a new advocacy campaign to secure a final vote, urging House lawmakers to approve the bill as soon as they return from the Thanksgiving recess.
Tyson’s Nebraska plant closure and falling Cattle on Feed numbers send cattle markets tumbling. Analysts warn of tighter supplies, weak margins, and rising global competition.
One trader said the products entering the U.S. are primarily grind and trim, noting that the volume and type of beef, on its own, should not cause a major disruption. However, he says fund traders are reacting heavily to headlines rather than market realities.
According to November’s Cattle on Feed Report, Nebraska now leads the nation in cattle feeding as tighter supplies continue to reshape regional market power and long-term price dynamics.
Tyson’s closure reflects deep supply shortages in the U.S. cattle industry, tightening packing capacity, weakening competition, and signaling more volatility ahead for cow-calf producers and feedyards.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Record ethanol production and improving blending demand continue to support corn usage despite rising short-term inventories.
Tight beef cow supplies and steady demand point to continued record-level cull cow prices in 2026.
A disciplined, breakeven-based marketing plan helps protect margins and reduce risk, even when markets remain unpredictable.
Expanded school access to whole milk provides modest but reliable demand support for U.S. dairy producers.
The American Farm Bureau Federation’s 2026 agenda centers on labor stability, biosecurity, and economic resilience for family farms. Expanded DMC coverage improves risk protection for dairy operations facing tighter margins.
Agronomy experts explain why standing crop residue protects soil and reduces costs for crop growers, while shredding often yields little benefit at higher costs.