LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) — Milk prices are entering 2026 under heavy pressure as global and domestic production continues to outpace demand, raising concerns about how quickly the market can work through a growing surplus.
According to analysis from Ben Laine of Terrain, the all-milk price fell to $20 per hundredweight in October, more than 20 percent below a year earlier.
U.S. milk production has expanded sharply, with output up more than 4 percent year over year late in 2025, driven by the largest milk cow herd in decades and higher per-cow productivity. At the same time, milk output has increased across the European Union and New Zealand, flooding global markets and intensifying price competition for exports.
Product markets adjusted quickly. Butter prices led the downturn, followed by cheese, as ample cream supplies and expanded processing capacity collided with weaker global pricing. Nonfat dry milk declined more modestly, while whey remained comparatively firm due to strong protein demand.
Despite lower prices, production may be slow to respond. Beef-on-dairy revenues and risk management coverage have softened the immediate financial signal for some producers. Still, higher slaughter rates suggest adjustment has begun.
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Alan Bjerga, with the National Milk Producers Federation, joined us on Tuesday from Wisconsin with his Dairy Industry Outlook.
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Livestock and government payments provide a boost, but crop receipts and rising expenses keep pressure on margins. Strong financial planning remains key in a volatile environment.
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The USDA’s August Cold Storage report shows shifting stock levels across major dairy, meat, and poultry products.
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The total value of the U.S. potato crop was $4.60 billion in 2024, representing an 8% decrease from the previous year.
September 29, 2025 06:00 PM
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Crop-specific shifts and strong prices highlight the variability of this year’s fruit and tree nut harvest, according to USDA data.
September 29, 2025 05:11 PM
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The decline in production marks the second consecutive year of contraction in the U.S. turkey industry.
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The USDA noted that peanut edible utilization season-to-date is down 3% on the year, despite overall stocks increasing.
September 29, 2025 04:55 PM
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