LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) — Milk prices are entering 2026 under heavy pressure as global and domestic production continues to outpace demand, raising concerns about how quickly the market can work through a growing surplus.
According to analysis from Ben Laine of Terrain, the all-milk price fell to $20 per hundredweight in October, more than 20 percent below a year earlier.
U.S. milk production has expanded sharply, with output up more than 4 percent year over year late in 2025, driven by the largest milk cow herd in decades and higher per-cow productivity. At the same time, milk output has increased across the European Union and New Zealand, flooding global markets and intensifying price competition for exports.
Product markets adjusted quickly. Butter prices led the downturn, followed by cheese, as ample cream supplies and expanded processing capacity collided with weaker global pricing. Nonfat dry milk declined more modestly, while whey remained comparatively firm due to strong protein demand.
Despite lower prices, production may be slow to respond. Beef-on-dairy revenues and risk management coverage have softened the immediate financial signal for some producers. Still, higher slaughter rates suggest adjustment has begun.
Expanding chicken supplies are likely to keep prices under pressure in early 2026 despite steady demand growth.
January 09, 2026 11:00 AM
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Reduced winter placements indicate tighter fed cattle supplies and greater leverage during peak-demand months.
January 09, 2026 06:00 AM
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Federal nutrition policy is signaling a stronger demand for whole foods produced by U.S. farmers and ranchers. Consumer-facing guidance favors animal protein, but institutional demand may change little under existing saturated fat limits.
January 08, 2026 11:42 AM
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Retail pricing confirms tight cattle supplies and supports continued leverage for producers, reinforcing the need for disciplined risk management.
January 07, 2026 06:00 PM
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Long-term demand uncertainty is reshaping specialty crop strategies as producers adapt to fewer, older consumers.
January 07, 2026 08:01 AM
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Seasonal boxed beef softness does not change the tight-supply outlook — leverage remains closer to the farm gate heading into 2026.
January 07, 2026 06:00 AM
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The U.S. Meat Export Federation plans to expand its global market presence in the New Year and says it is focusing its appeal on the growing middle class worldwide.
January 06, 2026 12:21 PM
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Preserving equity through active risk management remains critical in a volatile, supply-driven market.
January 06, 2026 06:00 AM
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Weather, Tight Supplies, and Planning Shape Farm Decisions
January 05, 2026 03:23 PM
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