LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD-TV) — Profitable milk and cheaper feed in 2024 set the stage for a supply surge that’s now weighing on prices — and rippling into the beef complex. U.S. dairy cow numbers climbed to 9.52 million in August, the highest since 1993, with Texas at 699,000 head — the most since 1958. With more cows on line, processors are expanding capacity alongside them.
Output per cow is also up. August production reached 2,050 pounds per head — a record for the month and 1.3 percent above August 2024 — pushing three-month milk production 3.6 percent higher year over year. As product piles up, pricing has slipped: 40-lb cheddar blocks have ranged from $1.95 to $1.70 per pound and sit roughly 30 cents below last year; butter fell from $2.50 to about $1.70 by mid-October; and NFDM is near $1.14 — it’s low for 2025.
Those declines are flowing back to mailbox checks while cull dynamics tighten the beef pipeline. Beef cow slaughter remains lower, but dairy culling has matched last year since mid-year and could increase as margins narrow and cull values stay strong — absent any government buyout, the market will do the rationing.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Prepare for softer milk checks into winter, watch cull-cow values and timing, and stress-test cash flow as product prices recalibrate.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
Late harvest and tight supplies shape crop progress and agribusiness this week. Here is a regional snapshot of harvest pace, crop conditions, logistics, and livestock economics across U.S. agriculture for the week of Dec. 1, 2025.
December 01, 2025 04:22 PM
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Cargill’s commitment to keep plants open helps preserve competition as Tyson removes capacity amid historically tight cattle supplies.
December 01, 2025 03:55 PM
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Tryston Beyrer, Crop Nutrition Lead at The Mosaic Company, examines planning trends as producers weigh corn and soybean plantings for 2026.
December 01, 2025 03:27 PM
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Brooks York with AgriSompo joins us to offer an update on what agents are prioritizing as the calendar year winds down.
December 01, 2025 03:06 PM
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The newly elected Executive Vice President of the Tennessee Cattlemen’s Association (TCA), Dale Parker, joins us on-set to share his vision for his state’s cattle industry.
December 01, 2025 02:47 PM
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SDRP Stage 2 now helps producers recover shallow, uninsured losses from major 2023–2024 disasters, with streamlined sign-ups open through April 30.
December 01, 2025 11:16 AM
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Tyson’s capacity cuts weaken local basis, tighten kill space, and heighten dependence on imports, signaling more volatility for producers.
December 01, 2025 11:09 AM
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Low farmer shares reflect deep consolidation across the food chain, keeping producer returns thin even as retail food prices remain high.
November 25, 2025 03:02 PM
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The National Milk Producers Federation will launch a new advocacy campaign to secure a final vote, urging House lawmakers to approve the bill as soon as they return from the Thanksgiving recess.
November 25, 2025 01:09 PM
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