LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD-TV) — Profitable milk and cheaper feed in 2024 set the stage for a supply surge that’s now weighing on prices — and rippling into the beef complex. U.S. dairy cow numbers climbed to 9.52 million in August, the highest since 1993, with Texas at 699,000 head — the most since 1958. With more cows on line, processors are expanding capacity alongside them.
Output per cow is also up. August production reached 2,050 pounds per head — a record for the month and 1.3 percent above August 2024 — pushing three-month milk production 3.6 percent higher year over year. As product piles up, pricing has slipped: 40-lb cheddar blocks have ranged from $1.95 to $1.70 per pound and sit roughly 30 cents below last year; butter fell from $2.50 to about $1.70 by mid-October; and NFDM is near $1.14 — it’s low for 2025.
Those declines are flowing back to mailbox checks while cull dynamics tighten the beef pipeline. Beef cow slaughter remains lower, but dairy culling has matched last year since mid-year and could increase as margins narrow and cull values stay strong — absent any government buyout, the market will do the rationing.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Prepare for softer milk checks into winter, watch cull-cow values and timing, and stress-test cash flow as product prices recalibrate.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
Lower U.S. ethanol production and stocks may support ethanol prices while strong export demand continues to support ethanol and corn markets.
April 06, 2026 12:28 PM
·
The White House’s plan calls for a nearly 20 percent reduction in the USDA’s budget, which would impact various food and agriculture aid programs.
April 06, 2026 12:08 PM
·
Spring Fieldwork Progress Mixed As Moisture Slows Activity
April 06, 2026 10:28 AM
·
Charly Cummings with Superior Livestock Auctions provides a real-time look at cattle market activity, demand trends, and what lies ahead for upcoming livestock auctions in Texas.
April 02, 2026 04:43 PM
·
Farm Bureau Economist Dr. Faith Parum warns farmers to brace for more losses as the war in Iran sends shockwaves through the ag economy and raises input costs even further.
April 02, 2026 01:31 PM
·
More than 15 million birds were affected by bird flu, but fewer outbreaks are helping bring egg prices down
April 02, 2026 11:50 AM
·
