LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD-TV) — Profitable milk and cheaper feed in 2024 set the stage for a supply surge that’s now weighing on prices — and rippling into the beef complex. U.S. dairy cow numbers climbed to 9.52 million in August, the highest since 1993, with Texas at 699,000 head — the most since 1958. With more cows on line, processors are expanding capacity alongside them.
Output per cow is also up. August production reached 2,050 pounds per head — a record for the month and 1.3 percent above August 2024 — pushing three-month milk production 3.6 percent higher year over year. As product piles up, pricing has slipped: 40-lb cheddar blocks have ranged from $1.95 to $1.70 per pound and sit roughly 30 cents below last year; butter fell from $2.50 to about $1.70 by mid-October; and NFDM is near $1.14 — it’s low for 2025.
Those declines are flowing back to mailbox checks while cull dynamics tighten the beef pipeline. Beef cow slaughter remains lower, but dairy culling has matched last year since mid-year and could increase as margins narrow and cull values stay strong — absent any government buyout, the market will do the rationing.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Prepare for softer milk checks into winter, watch cull-cow values and timing, and stress-test cash flow as product prices recalibrate.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
USDA released the November WASDE Report on Friday, the first supply-and-demand estimate to drop since September, just before the 43-day government shutdown.
November 14, 2025 12:22 PM
·
U.S. Trade officials announced new deals with El Salvador, Guatemala, Ecuador, and Argentina, as well as a steep reduction in tariffs on Swiss imports.
November 14, 2025 11:58 AM
·
FD-TV’s own Tammi Arender caught up with Gregg Doud, President and CEO of the National Milk Producers Federation.
November 13, 2025 12:05 PM
·
Winter weather will challenge livestock producers working to rebuild their herds despite harsh conditions.
November 12, 2025 01:20 PM
·
Enforceable origin labels could create clearer premiums for U.S. cattle and address concerns some producers have had with competition from foreign imported beef.
November 12, 2025 12:39 PM
·
Rural businesses report softer sales, tougher hiring, and restrained investment — a backdrop that can pinch farm support capacity even if posted prices cool.
November 12, 2025 12:22 PM
·
Friday’s release will be the first WASDE report in about two months, and early estimates indicate a corn surplus is still on the way.
November 12, 2025 12:16 PM
·
The National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF) says recent wins in markets like Malaysia and Cambodia help farmers focus on production rather than trade barriers.
November 11, 2025 03:50 PM
·
Tyson expects another year of beef-segment losses due to tight cattle supplies, even as chicken, pork, and prepared foods strengthen overall margins.
November 11, 2025 01:26 PM
·
