New numbers show China may not be able to hold off trade talks for much longer. One commodity analyst says the pressure is mounting and warns China may soon need to re-engage.
Over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned tariff rates will return to reciprocal levels if deals are not soon reached. Chinese officials were confident heading into the latest tariff talks, but StoneX Economist Arlan Suderman says that confidence may be rooted in a strategic wait-and-see approach.
“Right now, China believes that it is in a better position than the United States, because it can control the message, and it believes that if it waits out Trump, that he’ll lose public support here in the United States, and Congress will clip his wings, so to speak, and then China won’t have to give up anything, because they watch the news. They see the negative reporting, and that’s what they’re banking on right now, so overall, they’re holding out for that, and they feel if they negotiate, they’ll get a worse story.”
Suderman adds that factory slowdowns, layoffs, and rising debt are hurting China’s economy and could be enough to bring them back to the negotiating table.
Ag leaders say President Donald Trump’s State of the Union is unlikely to spark major agriculture headlines, but ongoing tariff uncertainty and trade policy remain key concerns, as does the debate around glyphosate and the status of the next Farm Bill.
February 24, 2026 11:57 AM
·
Expanded global trade access boosts long-term export demand potential for U.S. ag products.
February 23, 2026 03:03 PM
·
Agriculture avoided major disruptions, but trade uncertainty remains elevated.
February 23, 2026 10:09 AM
·
The debate now matters as much as the policy — market rules and regulatory clarity depend on whether Congress can finish the bill this year.
February 22, 2026 03:00 PM
·
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled on Friday that imposing duties without Congressional authorization exceeds presidential powers. RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney joins us to discuss the potential trade and agriculture implications of the recent ruling.
February 20, 2026 10:09 AM
·
Fertilizer still consumes an unusually large share of crop value.
February 20, 2026 09:00 AM
·
The global rice surplus outweighs tighter U.S. supplies, pressuring prices.
February 19, 2026 08:00 AM
·
Lawmakers request information from CEO Scott Stump over sponsorship concerns and potential implications for the organization’s nonprofit status.
February 17, 2026 12:28 PM
·
Large carry-in stocks across major crops could limit price recovery in 2026/27 unless demand strengthens or weather-related supply reductions occur.
February 16, 2026 12:30 PM
·
