NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Mid-December planning has shifted from harvest to logistics, winter input decisions, and lender meetings as producers size up 2026 margins. Grain movement indicators turned softer on rail and barge, while Gulf vessel loadings also ran below last year’s pace. At the same time, farm credit conditions remain mixed, with crop margins under pressure and livestock returns more supportive as renewals approach.
RFD-TV Markets Specialist Tony St. James breaks down the state of agribusiness and harvest progress across each region of the United States for the week of Monday, December 15, 2025:
Great Plains
- Texas — Row-crop decisions are increasingly tied to fertilizer pricing and supply risk, especially with continued attention on potash availability and spring nutrient costs. Cattle operations remain focused on marketing plans and feed needs as crop bins stay full and cash-flow timing tightens.
- Oklahoma — Winter wheat stands are the main story, with grazing prospects uneven where fall moisture missed. Stocker operators are weighing grass value against higher interest costs and cautious credit terms.
- Kansas — Wheat development and moisture outlook are driving early 2026 risk-management conversations. Logistics also remain part of the discussion as freight trends influence basis expectations later this winter.
- Nebraska — Corn and soybean yields may be in the rearview, but margin math is not. Producers are finalizing 2026 budgets focused on fertilizer, rent negotiations, and operating lines.
- South Dakota & North Dakota — Most fieldwork is done, but marketing remains cautious with storage heavily used and producers waiting for better opportunities. Export pace and transportation costs remain key swing factors for winter movement.
Midwest
- Iowa — On-farm storage is doing a lot of work, with farmers balancing carry opportunities against cash needs and loan covenants. The conversation is increasingly about 2026 inputs, capital purchases, and protecting working capital.
- Illinois — River economics continue to influence basis planning as barge movement runs below last year’s pace. Some operators are prioritizing local truck bids over uncertain river freight signals.
- Minnesota & Wisconsin — Farms are shifting into cost-control mode as fertilizer, seed, and machinery decisions are filtered through tighter profitability expectations. Dairy and livestock feed demand is steady, but budgets are being built conservatively.
- Michigan & Ohio — Many operations are finalizing 2026 rotations and input commitments, with cash preservation a priority. Supply-chain reliability remains a concern for rural businesses even as fuel prices ease.
Delta & South
- Arkansas & Louisiana — Producers are watching export pull through the Gulf channels while managing storage and basis decisions. Slightly lighter vessel loadings reinforce a cautious near-term shipping tone.
- Mississippi — Farms continue to navigate thin crop margins, making operating credit terms and renewal timing central to winter planning. Livestock-linked operations are generally steadier than row-crop-only balance sheets.
- Alabama, Georgia & Florida — Cotton-related cash flows and input costs are shaping early 2026 decisions, especially where equipment and labor expenses remain elevated. Rural service businesses continue to face hiring challenges.
- Carolinas & Virginia — Producers are settling into winter planning with a close eye on fertilizer affordability and risk tools for 2026. Logistics costs remain part of the equation even with some relief at the pump.
West & Southwest
- California — Specialty crop operations are focused on labor, water regulations, and shipping costs as winter marketing ramps up. Export-dependent channels remain sensitive to ocean freight and port pace.
- Arizona & New Mexico — Rangeland conditions are guiding winter feeding strategies, with tighter budgets around hay, freight, and diesel. Irrigated areas remain focused on water efficiency and per-acre costs.
- Colorado & Utah — Winter wheat and forage planning are shaping spring input decisions. Many farms are delaying discretionary capital spending while monitoring margins and credit conditions.
- Nevada — Hay and freight costs remain front-and-center as producers emphasize winter feed security and transport planning.
Northwest & Northern Rockies
- Washington & Oregon — Export channels remain a key driver, with attention on Pacific Northwest freight spreads and the pace of overseas bookings.
- Idaho — Dairy and feed users are watching ration costs and logistics, while grain movement decisions hinge on local bids versus distant freight opportunities.
- Montana & Wyoming — Ranches are settling into winter routines with hay inventories and market plans largely set. Operators remain cautious on 2026 expansion decisions.
Northeast
- New York & Pennsylvania — Dairy farms are recalculating margins as milk-price direction and feed costs shape early 2026 decisions. Labor availability and financing terms remain limiting factors for smaller operations.
- Maryland & Delaware — Rotation and nutrient planning dominate winter discussions, with logistics costs still relevant for moving grain and inputs.
- New Jersey & New England — Direct-market farms are in winter mode, managing storage, greenhouse costs, and staffing constraints while keeping a tight grip on expenses.
Upper Midwest & Great Lakes
- Michigan — Specialty crop and processing sectors are focused on quality, storage, and contract terms, while dairy budgets remain conservative.
- Wisconsin — Feed demand is steady, but land-rent talks and lender meetings are shaping 2026 plans as profitability stays uneven across farm types.
- Ohio & Indiana — Most farms are finalizing 2026 input strategies with a stronger emphasis on cash-flow discipline as row-crop margins remain tight.
Far North & Territories
- Alaska — High freight and fuel costs continue to dominate winter feeding and input availability decisions, keeping production planning cautious.
- U.S. Territories — Shipping costs and port reliability remain central challenges, shaping feed and fertilizer affordability and limiting expansion heading into 2026.
Related Stories
A new study found that retaining the EPA’s half-RIN credit protects soybean demand, farm income, and crushing-sector strength while preserving biofuel market flexibility.
The U.S. has a bountiful corn supply, but markets are waiting for the January WASDE Report, which will include updated yield estimates.
Tim and Sharyn Abbott of the Music City Celebration Sale preview the weekend’s premier auction, drawing breeders to Nashville again this year.
“I’m not sure where this bridge goes,” trader Brady Huck with Advanced Trading told RFD-TV News earlier this week.
CoBank’s 2026 Year Ahead Report cites global grain oversupply, easing inflation, rate cuts, and major data center growth that could reshape rural America.
Plan for sharp, short-term volatility after unexpected outages; permanent closures rarely trigger major price spread disruptions.
