NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — As December gets underway, most major row crops are out of the field, and attention is turning toward 2026 input decisions, credit meetings, and new policy shifts in crop insurance and livestock health. Strong corn yields, mixed cotton outcomes, and weaker crop margins are shaping winter planning, while tightening farm credit, new border defenses against screwworms, and record ethanol output all factor into this week’s outlook.
Great Plains
- Texas — Cotton harvest is still wrapping up in parts of West Texas and the Coastal Bend, with quality generally better than in recent drought years, but margins are squeezed by low prices. Cattle producers are watching New World screwworm developments in northern Mexico and the FDA’s approval of Exzolt Cattle-CA1, while also bracing for ongoing cattle import restrictions and higher biosecurity expectations along the Rio Grande. Feedyards remain focused on higher corn yields but softer cattle prices as they book feed and financing for the first quarter.
- Oklahoma — Wheat pasture conditions are highly variable, with better grazing where fall moisture cooperated and thin stands where rains missed. Stocker operators are weighing whether to pay up for calves or hold cash, given uncertain winter wheat prospects and still-firm feeder prices.
- Kansas — Fall harvest is effectively complete, and producers are concentrating on 2026 budgets against a backdrop of narrow crop margins and rising interest costs. Feedlots continue to face tight feeder supplies and lower placements, while discussions about the loss of Tyson’s Lexington capacity highlight concerns over future competition for finished cattle in the region.
- Nebraska — With corn and soybean harvests largely finished and strong yields in many areas, producers are wrestling with weak prices and elevated input costs. The upcoming closure of Tyson’s Lexington beef plant in early 2026 is front-of-mind, with local communities and feedlots considering basis impacts, trucking distances, and labor dislocations even as Nebraska remains a top cattle-on-feed state.
- South Dakota & North Dakota — Row-crop harvest is mostly wrapped up, and many growers report decent to strong yields but disappointing price realizations. Basis remains relatively firm in interior locations, though producers are cautious about new-crop sales and watching export demand and freight costs heading into 2026.
Midwest
- Iowa — Corn and soybean harvests are effectively complete, and on-farm storage is heavily used as producers sit on grain awaiting better basis and futures opportunities. Many operations are now deep into lender meetings, with tighter working-capital positions and higher operating interest rates driving more conservative 2026 plans.
- Illinois — Fields are quiet aside from some remaining fall tillage and fertilizer applications between weather systems. Barge economics on the rivers remain a swing factor in local basis, while interior bids generally look more supportive, pushing some producers to focus on truck markets over river movement.
- Minnesota & Wisconsin — Grain is largely in the bin, and farmers are working through drying costs and storage constraints after a long harvest. Credit conversations are growing more serious as the Chicago Fed’s latest AgLetter notes rising loan delinquencies, even as farmland values continue to post modest year-over-year gains across much of the region.
- Michigan & Ohio — Remaining corn acres are finishing up, with most producers satisfied on yield but frustrated by commodity prices. Many are pre-paying some 2026 inputs where discounts are offered, while others delay purchases to preserve cash in light of weaker margins and higher interest rates.
Delta & South
- Arkansas & Louisiana — Rice and soybean harvests are complete, and attention is shifting to winter wheat stands and next year’s input costs. Producers are still digesting another year of tight or negative row-crop margins, leaning heavily on ad hoc assistance and careful marketing to keep balance sheets viable.
- Mississippi — Grain harvest is mostly wrapped up, but early-harvest timing and limited storage meant many growers sold into weaker prices and missed the recent soybean rally. Financial stress is building after multiple years of soft returns, and concerns about equity and operating credit availability for 2026 are growing.
- Alabama, Georgia & Florida — Cotton and peanuts are nearly finished in most areas, though a few late fields remain. The cotton jassid and late-season dryness have producers rethinking rotations and risk management, while higher machinery, labor, and fertilizer costs weigh heavily on 2026 crop choices.
- Carolinas & Virginia — Cotton and soybean harvests are approaching the finish line, with some lingering fields delayed by fall rains. Wheat seedings are modest, reflecting several years of price and weather risk, and producers are carefully penciling corn-versus-soybean margins ahead of spring planting decisions.
West & Southwest
- California — Specialty crop growers are wrapping up nut and fruit seasons while managing labor costs, water allocations, and shipping expenses. Even with improved reservoir conditions compared with peak drought years, long-term groundwater limits and regulatory costs continue to shape acreage and investment decisions.
- Arizona & New Mexico — Rangeland conditions are mixed, with scattered moisture helping some areas but leaving others short on forage heading into winter. Cattle producers juggle strong calf prices against elevated feed and hay costs, and many are watching border screwworm control efforts closely, including new sterile-fly facilities in Mexico and planned investments in Texas.
- Colorado & Utah — Winter wheat stands are generally in, but uneven where fall rains underperformed. Grain and hay producers are balancing lower commodity prices and lingering input inflation, leading many to trim capital purchases and focus on cash-flow resilience for 2026.
- Nevada — Hay marketing is slowing as ranchers finalize winter feed inventories. Water rights, long-term forage planning, and transport costs remain central concerns as producers look to next year.
Northwest & Northern Rockies
- Washington & Oregon — Soft white wheat exporters in the Pacific Northwest remain active, supported by competitive pricing into Asian markets. Ocean freight from the PNW to Japan has ticked higher quarter to quarter, raising delivered-cost concerns but still sitting below recent four-year averages.
- Idaho — Feedlots are lining up grain and hay supplies for winter while watching cattle and dairy margins, which remain highly sensitive to feed and energy costs. Winter wheat and pasture conditions improved slightly with recent moisture, but pockets of dryness remain.
- Montana & Wyoming — Calf runs are largely wrapped up, and most ranches report adequate hay stocks following a reasonable forage year. Subsoil moisture remains a concern in some areas, and producers are closely watching cattle prices and slaughter capacity news as they plan 2026 herd strategies.
Northeast
- New York & Pennsylvania — Corn silage and most grain corn are done, with dairy farms now focused on ration costs and milk-price outlooks after a year of volatile dairy markets. Tight labor supplies and persistent input costs are pressuring smaller family operations despite firm retail prices for dairy products.
- Maryland & Delaware — Soybean and corn harvests are complete, and growers are turning to 2026 rotations and nutrient plans, particularly around Chesapeake Bay watershed requirements. Truck and barge logistics remain manageable, but soft grain prices keep margins thin.
- New Jersey & New England — Vegetable, orchard, and nursery operations are fully into winter storage and greenhouse management mode. Direct-market farms report solid holiday traffic, but note continued consumer sensitivity to price increases amid higher living costs.
Upper Midwest & Great Lakes
- Michigan — Sugar beets, dry beans, and remaining corn are nearly wrapped up, with processors monitoring quality after earlier weather delays. Dairy producers are recalculating budgets as feed costs, labor, and interest rates keep margins compressed heading into 2026.
- Wisconsin — Row-crop harvest is essentially finished, and local elevators and feed mills are working to secure enough corn and soybeans for winter needs. Land-rent negotiations and machinery costs are front and center as farmers refine break-even levels with lenders.
- Ohio & Indiana — Most corn and soybeans are in the bin, with many farms reporting decent yields but weak price realization. Some producers are exploring reduced fertilizer rates or lower-cost seed traits in 2026 as they try to maintain margins in a tighter credit environment highlighted by recent Federal Reserve ag credit surveys.
Far North & Territories
- Alaska — Livestock and small-grain producers are focused on winter feeding, with high freight and fuel costs continuing to dominate cost structures. Supply-chain reliability remains a key risk factor for hay, grain, and basic inputs.
- U.S. Territories — Puerto Rico and other island territories remain exposed to elevated shipping and port costs that raise feed and fertilizer prices. Weather risks and infrastructure constraints continue to complicate long-term plans for livestock and specialty-crop operations, even as local markets remain supportive of fresh, locally produced food.
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