National Crop Progress and Agribusiness Update—Monday, January 5, 2026

Weather, Tight Supplies, and Planning Shape Farm Decisions

Crop Progress Graphic

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — As the calendar turns to 2026, producers across the country are balancing winter weather management with early marketing and planning decisions. Livestock markets remain supply-driven, grain movement is seasonally uneven, and moisture conditions continue to shape outlooks for winter wheat, forage, and specialty crops. Input costs, logistics, and policy developments remain front of mind as producers position for the year ahead.

Great Plains

  • Texas — Cattle supplies remain tight, with feeder availability limited and border uncertainty still impacting placement decisions. Wheat pasture conditions remain mixed, with dryland acres needing moisture. Cotton ginning is largely complete, and marketing decisions are extending into early 2026.
  • Oklahoma — Winter wheat stands remain uneven, with grazing pressure increasing where moisture was adequate. Cow-calf operators focused on winter feed management.
  • Kansas — Feedlot inventories steady, but placements remain constrained. Wheat is fully dormant under mixed soil moisture conditions.
  • Nebraska — Corn movement supported by ethanol demand, keeping interior basis firm. Cold weather raises feedlot energy costs.
  • North & South Dakota — Grain movement slowed by winter weather. Calf marketing is steady but lighter as producers retain inventory.

Midwest

  • Iowa — Ethanol production continues to support corn demand, though margins are mixed. Hog producers are monitoring price pressure and feed costs.
  • Illinois — Interior basis stronger than river markets amid seasonal barge disruptions. Fertilizer and input purchasing are underway.
  • Indiana & Ohio — Corn and soybean marketing decisions tied closely to export demand and early 2026 price outlooks.
  • Minnesota & Wisconsin — Dairy margins are tightening as national milk production rises. Feed supplies are adequate, but energy costs remain elevated.

Delta & South

  • Arkansas — Rice and soybean marketing steady; barge traffic improving but still weather-sensitive.
  • Louisiana — Grain movement slowed by river conditions; export demand mixed.
  • Mississippi — Corn and soybean basis stable; producers watching logistics closely.
  • Georgia & Alabama — Cotton marketing continues; poultry integrators managing higher feed costs.
  • Florida — Vegetable producers are dealing with lingering drought stress in northern areas and increasing irrigation demands.

West & Southwest

  • California — Strong milk production continues to pressure dairy prices. Vegetable and processing tomato sectors are adjusting to high yields and softer pricing.
  • Arizona & New Mexico — Forage availability stable; livestock producers focused on water management and winter feed.
  • Colorado & Utah — Wheat and forage crops dormant; livestock operations focused on weather protection and feed costs.
  • Nevada — Hay movement steady; water availability shaping longer-term planning.

Northwest & Northern Rockies

  • Washington & Oregon — Grain exports remain active despite recent rail challenges. Tree fruit storage and marketing are ongoing.
  • Idaho — The potato and dairy sectors are monitoring price pressures amid strong production levels.
  • Montana & Wyoming — Cattle markets steady; hay supplies adequate, though winter conditions are increasing costs.

Northeast

  • New York & Pennsylvania — Dairy producers reviewing risk management strategies as milk supplies expand nationally.
  • Maryland & Delaware — Grain movement steady; poultry operations adjusting to higher energy expenses.
  • New England — Specialty crop and greenhouse operations focused on winter energy costs and local market demand.

Upper Midwest & Great Lakes

  • Michigan — Dry beans, sugar beets, and dairy are facing margin pressure. Basis is stronger away from river terminals.
  • Wisconsin — Cheese production supporting milk demand, but rising supplies continue to weigh on prices.

Far North & Territories

  • Alaska — Feed and fuel logistics remain costly; producers focused on winter supply security.
  • U.S. Territories — Freight delays and transportation costs continue to challenge agricultural input and output flows.
Related Stories
Fred Seamon with CME Group joins us to discuss the latest Ag Economy Barometer and the key economic pressures shaping producer sentiment in May.
IDA Texas’s Cooper Little discusses producer response to New World Screwworm in Texas, ongoing coordination with animal health officials, and the steps being taken to manage and protect livestock movement across the region.
The FAO report continues to serve as a key benchmark for global food market conditions, offering insight into how shifting supply and demand dynamics are impacting food systems worldwide.
Brazil Potash CEO Matt Simpson discusses global fertilizer security, the importance of domestic production, and Brazil’s push toward fertilizer independence, which could impact market competitiveness.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

A new survey of agricultural lenders points to increasing financial stress across the Ninth District.
Researchers say expanded E15 access may benefit corn producers but create challenges for soybean growers.
Rising payroll expenses continue to pressure small businesses across rural America.
Wheat Harvest Expands As Drought Still Pressures Pastures
USDA confirmed the latest cases involve a calf in La Salle County and a dog in Andrews County
Agriculture Shows
Join markets specialist Scott Shellady, better known as the Cow Guy, as he covers the market-close, breaking down headlines that drive the commodities and equities markets with commentary from respected industry heavyweights.
Tara Beaver Coronado (formerly known as Beaver Vineyards) is a farmer in Northern California. She raises grain crops with her dad. Tara planted her very first vineyard in 2018. Her channel is centered around her daily life on the farm, as well as promoting the diversity and scale of California agriculture.
A few years ago, the Stoney Ridge Farmer moved from a 1/3-acre lot in the city to a 150-acre farm nestled in the foothills of the Blue Ridge Mountains of North Carolina.
Cole Sonne is a fourth-generation farmer living in Southeastern South Dakota. His family farm raises Black Angus bulls and grows alfalfa, grass, hay, corn, and soybeans. Cole says, “I make these videos for your entertainment (and for my own, as well)!”