National Crop Progress and Agribusiness Update—Monday, January 5, 2026

Weather, Tight Supplies, and Planning Shape Farm Decisions

Crop Progress Graphic

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — As the calendar turns to 2026, producers across the country are balancing winter weather management with early marketing and planning decisions. Livestock markets remain supply-driven, grain movement is seasonally uneven, and moisture conditions continue to shape outlooks for winter wheat, forage, and specialty crops. Input costs, logistics, and policy developments remain front of mind as producers position for the year ahead.

Great Plains

  • Texas — Cattle supplies remain tight, with feeder availability limited and border uncertainty still impacting placement decisions. Wheat pasture conditions remain mixed, with dryland acres needing moisture. Cotton ginning is largely complete, and marketing decisions are extending into early 2026.
  • Oklahoma — Winter wheat stands remain uneven, with grazing pressure increasing where moisture was adequate. Cow-calf operators focused on winter feed management.
  • Kansas — Feedlot inventories steady, but placements remain constrained. Wheat is fully dormant under mixed soil moisture conditions.
  • Nebraska — Corn movement supported by ethanol demand, keeping interior basis firm. Cold weather raises feedlot energy costs.
  • North & South Dakota — Grain movement slowed by winter weather. Calf marketing is steady but lighter as producers retain inventory.

Midwest

  • Iowa — Ethanol production continues to support corn demand, though margins are mixed. Hog producers are monitoring price pressure and feed costs.
  • Illinois — Interior basis stronger than river markets amid seasonal barge disruptions. Fertilizer and input purchasing are underway.
  • Indiana & Ohio — Corn and soybean marketing decisions tied closely to export demand and early 2026 price outlooks.
  • Minnesota & Wisconsin — Dairy margins are tightening as national milk production rises. Feed supplies are adequate, but energy costs remain elevated.

Delta & South

  • Arkansas — Rice and soybean marketing steady; barge traffic improving but still weather-sensitive.
  • Louisiana — Grain movement slowed by river conditions; export demand mixed.
  • Mississippi — Corn and soybean basis stable; producers watching logistics closely.
  • Georgia & Alabama — Cotton marketing continues; poultry integrators managing higher feed costs.
  • Florida — Vegetable producers are dealing with lingering drought stress in northern areas and increasing irrigation demands.

West & Southwest

  • California — Strong milk production continues to pressure dairy prices. Vegetable and processing tomato sectors are adjusting to high yields and softer pricing.
  • Arizona & New Mexico — Forage availability stable; livestock producers focused on water management and winter feed.
  • Colorado & Utah — Wheat and forage crops dormant; livestock operations focused on weather protection and feed costs.
  • Nevada — Hay movement steady; water availability shaping longer-term planning.

Northwest & Northern Rockies

  • Washington & Oregon — Grain exports remain active despite recent rail challenges. Tree fruit storage and marketing are ongoing.
  • Idaho — The potato and dairy sectors are monitoring price pressures amid strong production levels.
  • Montana & Wyoming — Cattle markets steady; hay supplies adequate, though winter conditions are increasing costs.

Northeast

  • New York & Pennsylvania — Dairy producers reviewing risk management strategies as milk supplies expand nationally.
  • Maryland & Delaware — Grain movement steady; poultry operations adjusting to higher energy expenses.
  • New England — Specialty crop and greenhouse operations focused on winter energy costs and local market demand.

Upper Midwest & Great Lakes

  • Michigan — Dry beans, sugar beets, and dairy are facing margin pressure. Basis is stronger away from river terminals.
  • Wisconsin — Cheese production supporting milk demand, but rising supplies continue to weigh on prices.

Far North & Territories

  • Alaska — Feed and fuel logistics remain costly; producers focused on winter supply security.
  • U.S. Territories — Freight delays and transportation costs continue to challenge agricultural input and output flows.
Related Stories
Strong corn exports support prices while soybeans lag yearly pace. However, large carryover stocks limit upside despite solid yields.
Fuel costs ease over the long term, but fertilizer energy remains volatile.
Slightly higher sales amid shrinking acreage and inventories point to tighter supplies supporting catfish prices.
Winter Weather Shapes Markets and Early Fieldwork Nationwide
Tight storage could widen basis and limit marketing flexibility.
Large carry-in stocks across major crops could limit price recovery in 2026/27 unless demand strengthens or weather-related supply reductions occur.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

NCBA Chief Counsel Mary-Thomas Hart discussed the legal process behind delisting the prairie chicken, the challenges ranchers faced under the bird’s previous protections, and the benefits of cooperative habitat management for both livestock and wildlife.
Liquidity management and cost control will matter most in 2026.
Food demand is stable but price-sensitive across rural markets. For agriculture and rural communities, the important signal is not optimism — it is stability.
Stable blending demand continues to underpin corn use despite export volatility.
USDA headquarters downsizing reflects cost pressures and may reshape agency operations.
Farm CPA Paul Neiffer provided insight on updated PLC rate estimates, the role of base acres, and the upcoming enrollment window for ARC and PLC programs.
Agriculture Shows
America’s Heartland brings positive, heartfelt stories about American agriculture to viewers in both urban and rural areas.
Hosted by Pam Minick, “The American Rancher” focuses on the people and places that make ranching an American lifestyle. This half-hour magazine format series features livestock producers and their ranches, animals, and ranching practices.
For the latest information on how to take your operation from good to great, tune into Ag PhD. The program includes a wide range of agronomic information from how to maximize your fertilizer program & tiling to stopping those yield-robbing insects and crop diseases and more.
RFD Network is always creating new ways for rural America to educate and to be educated. RURAL AMERICA LIVE, the network’s longest-running self-produced program, is certainly no exception.