NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD-TV) — Ocean freight rates for bulk grain shipments climbed from the second to the third quarter of 2025, tightening cost pressures on exporters moving corn, wheat, and soybeans out of the U.S. Gulf and Pacific Northwest. According to data from O’Neil Commodity Consulting, rates to Japan rose sharply quarter-to-quarter, even though year-over-year costs remain lower and remain well below the recent four-year average.
Third-quarter Gulf-to-Japan rates averaged $54.36 per metric ton, up 17 percent from spring, while PNW-to-Japan rates averaged $29.08 per ton, up 7 percent. Gulf-to-Europe rates followed the same pattern. Rising Chinese demand for iron ore, coal, and steel exports helped lift global vessel use through July and August, pushing grain freight rates higher.
Operationally, shippers also contended with supply-chain disruptions, including Argentina’s low Parana River levels that slowed grain loading and raised vessel costs in September, as well as Chinese Golden Week stockpiling.
Looking ahead, vessel supply has grown 3 percent year over year, which could moderate rates, but China’s renewed soybean purchases are expected to increase Panamax demand.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Higher ocean freight raises export costs just as global grain competition intensifies.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
The review signals renewed scrutiny of China’s agricultural trade pledges and could reshape farm export opportunities depending on its outcome.
October 28, 2025 11:20 AM
·
The U.S.-Japan tech pact signals long-term investment in bio-innovation, connectivity, and secure supply chains — all of which can strengthen rural manufacturing, ag exports, and digital infrastructure critical to the next generation of farm productivity.
October 28, 2025 11:01 AM
·
Export volumes remain positive year-to-date, but weaker soybean loadings and slowing wheat movement hint at early bottlenecks in global demand or river logistics. Farmers should watch basis levels and freight conditions as export competition heats up.
October 28, 2025 10:58 AM
·
John Appel with the Farmers Business Network (FBN) joins us for a closer look at the 2026 Crop Protection Market Outlook Report.
October 27, 2025 01:00 PM
·
Farmers display a unique optimism — planting with the expectation that weather, basis, and prices will improve by harvest — asserting that the profession is an identity, not just a job.
October 27, 2025 12:12 PM
·
A fast-moving series of trade signals from the White House and key partners is resetting the near-term outlook for U.S. agriculture.
October 27, 2025 11:41 AM
·
Stay alert for trade announcements—especially border reopening timelines, tariff threats, and developments in Brazil’s export flows.
October 24, 2025 01:56 PM
·
Margin Protection and the new MCO add county-level margin tools — with earlier price discovery, input cost triggers, and high subsidy rates — to complement on-farm risk plans for 2026.
October 24, 2025 01:44 PM
·
Set targets and use forwards, futures, or options to manage downside while preserving room for rallies.
October 24, 2025 11:05 AM
·
