NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD-TV) — Ocean freight rates for bulk grain shipments climbed from the second to the third quarter of 2025, tightening cost pressures on exporters moving corn, wheat, and soybeans out of the U.S. Gulf and Pacific Northwest. According to data from O’Neil Commodity Consulting, rates to Japan rose sharply quarter-to-quarter, even though year-over-year costs remain lower and remain well below the recent four-year average.
Third-quarter Gulf-to-Japan rates averaged $54.36 per metric ton, up 17 percent from spring, while PNW-to-Japan rates averaged $29.08 per ton, up 7 percent. Gulf-to-Europe rates followed the same pattern. Rising Chinese demand for iron ore, coal, and steel exports helped lift global vessel use through July and August, pushing grain freight rates higher.
Operationally, shippers also contended with supply-chain disruptions, including Argentina’s low Parana River levels that slowed grain loading and raised vessel costs in September, as well as Chinese Golden Week stockpiling.
Looking ahead, vessel supply has grown 3 percent year over year, which could moderate rates, but China’s renewed soybean purchases are expected to increase Panamax demand.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Higher ocean freight raises export costs just as global grain competition intensifies.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Moderate oil prices may ease fuel costs, but continued caution in the energy sector could limit rural economic growth.
January 22, 2026 06:00 PM
·
From tariff talks in Europe to SCOTUS uncertainty and rising farm losses, analysts say policy and global supply will shape grain markets in the year ahead.
January 22, 2026 12:40 PM
·
Large Brazilian crops heighten downside price risk if the weather allows production to reach projected levels.
January 22, 2026 12:38 PM
·
Analysts say a Supreme Court decision on tariffs could reshape protein markets, strain U.S.-China trade, and force farmers to rethink global demand strategies.
January 21, 2026 12:03 PM
·
President Donald Trump speaks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, addressing SNAP spending, tariff threats against Europe, market reactions, and the upcoming USMCA review.
January 21, 2026 11:50 AM
·
Corn and wheat exports remain a demand bright spot, while soybeans are transitioning into a more typical late-winter shipping slowdown.
January 21, 2026 10:36 AM
·
Corn growers are turning to ethanol, E15 expansion, and export markets to help absorb record supplies and stabilize prices. Farm leaders discuss low-carbon ethanol demand, flex-fuel vehicle challenges, input costs, and the role of USMCA as producers look for market relief in the year ahead.
January 20, 2026 02:04 PM
·
From rising trade tensions in Europe to a pending Supreme Court decision on tariffs and shifting demand from China, global trade policy spearheaded by President Donald Trump continues to shape the outlook for U.S. agriculture—adding uncertainty as farmers navigate another volatile year.
January 20, 2026 01:14 PM
·
The Surface Transportation Board rejects the proposed Norfolk Southern–Union Pacific merger, prompting concerns from agricultural shippers about rail consolidation, service reliability, and higher transportation costs.
January 20, 2026 12:25 PM
·
