Ongoing drought could spell lower future cattle supplies

According to the latest Cattle on Feed report, drought brought placement numbers lower.

Drought conditions across the U.S. continue to have an impact on the cattle markets, according to recently published data.

Farm Bureau economists say the most recent Cattle on Feed report was bullish with total cattle on feed down a percent from last year. Bert Nelson points out that states impacted by drought had lower placement numbers, and that could mean lower cattle supplies in the future.

“This is likely due to some tighter calf supplies along with higher feed and input costs amplified by the drought conditions. We’ve seen marketings for fed cattle totaling 1.86 million head for September, this is four percent above this time in 2021. Now, when we really see marketing high and placements become lower over a longer drawn-out period of time, this really signals that lower cattle supplies are in the future,” said Nelson.

USDA numbers show beef slaughter is up, which Nelson says shows that packers need to get cattle in to meet current demand. He says when supplies tighten up and demand remains consistent, we should see prices follow suit.

Related Stories
Congressman Dusty Johnson of South Dakota joined us to discuss key ag policy developments and his outlook for agriculture in 2026.
Tight beef cow supplies and steady demand point to continued record-level cull cow prices in 2026.
Expanded school access to whole milk provides modest but reliable demand support for U.S. dairy producers.
Alissa White with American Farmland Trust joined us to provide insight into climate resilience efforts and strategies to help farmers manage weather-related risks.
The American Farm Bureau Federation’s 2026 agenda centers on labor stability, biosecurity, and economic resilience for family farms. Expanded DMC coverage improves risk protection for dairy operations facing tighter margins.
A high-stakes legal case in a South Dakota federal court concerning misleading country-of-origin labeling (MCOOL), such as “Product of the USA,” on food products, will significantly impact U.S. agricultural policy for years to come.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

The USDA says the framework is about “ending abusive government overreach” and “protecting farmers, families, and private property.”
Farm numbers still favor small operations, but production, resilience, and risk management are increasingly concentrated among fewer, larger farms.
Wed, 2/18/26 – 7:30 PM ET
While access to China remains uncertain, U.S. beef exporters are finding resilience and opportunity in other global markets, which could help maintain industry value and expand export opportunities.
American Farmland Trust shares guidance, research, and policy solutions to help farmers navigate the growing threat of PFAS, or “forever chemicals,” contaminating U.S. farmland.