The El Niño weather event is doing some damage to global crop forecasts.
It’s driving expectations monsoon rains will be the weakest in eight years. That rainfall is crucial for rice, sugarcane, soybean and corn. India accounted for 40% of global rice exports before putting the export ban in place.
Australia’s wheat production estimates are being lowered for the first time in four years without enough rain this month. The nation has had three straight years of bumper wheat harvests, boosting supplies for several importers, but this year’s output will likely be down three million metric tons to just 30 million.
As for Ukrainian wheat, farmers are not expected to reduce planting next year despite the ongoing war. Without the extension of the Black Sea Grain Deal, the war stricken country is facing greater export issues. This year Ukraine harvested almost 22 million metric tons of wheat, and it’s being transported through small river ports on the Danube and through the western land border with the EU.
The condition of Canada and Europe’s wheat is causing pasta prices to boil over. Drought has caused supplies to dwindle in both nations, and it’s sending up prices more than 24% in some areas. Global production of durum wheat this year is heading towards a 22 year low. Here in the U.S., retail pasta prices are up 8%.
