Geopolitical events could cause a shake-up in wheat. This week, President Trump said he has begun talks to help end the war in Ukraine.
Brian Hoops with Midwest Market Solutions says that news caught the market’s attention.
“Trump is trying to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, and if that happens, does that mean that Russia stops dumping cheap wheat onto the world market to fund their war? No war, no cheap wheat hitting the markets, we may see a little bit more competitive balance for world wheat trade if that does in fact happen.”
Another area traders are watching is South America. Conab recently put out numbers for Brazil’s soybean crop, leaving it largely unchanged from last season, but weather has not been very cooperative.
“It looks like the early yields were a little bit poor but are starting to pick up, improving now. It looks like we’re going to get some drier forecasts going forward and maybe some rain in southern Brazil and Northern Argentina. So, I would say the harvest weather is improving,” said Don Roose.
We should have a better idea where global crops stand next month when the WASDE report comes out March 11th.
USDA’s February WASDE report, analysts expect minimal price movement as grain stocks remain steady. Traders weigh renewed Chinese soybean purchases, South American weather, acreage shifts, and upcoming USMCA trade talks.
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