An announcement overnight from President Trump is moving the agricultural commodities.
In a post to Truth Social, he says, “China is worried about its shortage of soybeans. Our great farmers produce the most robust soybeans. I hope China will quickly quadruple its soybean orders. This is also a way of substantially reducing China’s trade deficit with the USA. Rapid service will be provided. Thank you, President XI.”
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Adequate transportation capacity exists, but fuel costs and soft river demand could widen basis risk.
Tight storage could widen basis and limit marketing flexibility.
Large carry-in stocks across major crops could limit price recovery in 2026/27 unless demand strengthens or weather-related supply reductions occur.
Rising Chinese feed output — especially for swine — signals sustained demand for protein meals and feed inputs, even when meat production growth appears modest.
