NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Harvest season is bringing both opportunity and strain, according to Rabobank’s Fall Harvest Outlook for North America. Analysts with the global ag lender say producers are facing a convergence of high input costs, shifting trade flows, and growing policy uncertainty that could delay a recovery in the commodity cycle.
Rabobank’s team points out that the U.S. — once China’s primary soybean supplier — has now been entirely replaced by Brazil, which supplies roughly 90 percent of China’s imports in 2025. Cheaper labor, multi-crop seasons, and favorable logistics have made South America more competitive. The shift, combined with tariffs and trade tensions, continues to challenge U.S. farmers, who are struggling to remain profitable despite strong yields.
Input inflation remains a key pressure point, as fertilizer demand and government policy distort pricing. Analysts warn that enhanced federal payments, while well-intentioned, risk further market imbalances. Some producers exploring sustainability and cost-cutting innovations face new barriers as they try to improve margins without adding risk. Rabobank says the path forward depends on returning to market fundamentals and reducing policy-driven volatility.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Rabobank’s outlook signals a tightening margin environment, emphasizing the need for cost control, trade stability, and clearer policy signals heading into 2026.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
A new study identified compounds within a “failed” tuberculosis treatment that effectively fight some herbicide-resistant “superweeds” in Australia. Researchers say their findings could be a “game-changer for the agriculture sector.”
In today’s Performance Through Partnership feature, brought to you by Golden Harvest, we meet farmer Kevin Siffring of Surprise, Nebraska.
Chris Weaver, a sixth generation farmer in Finksburg, Maryland, talks about his successful relationship with his partners on the Golden Harvest Agronomy Team for his soybean and corn operation.
Save this list to have on hand when you hit your local grocery store, farmerfarmers market, or CSA all season long!
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