Record U.S. Ethanol Output Contrasts with Softer Demand Trends

Strong plant output and rising exports contrast with softer domestic blending demand, suggesting margins are poised for volatility.

Farmland producing ethanol for the oil and gas industry. Railroad tankers cars lined up near a ethanol plant at sunset_Photo by photogrfx via AdobeStock_496174713.png

Photo by photogrfx via Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — U.S. ethanol plants pushed production to a new weekly record even as gasoline demand weakened, creating a more mixed outlook for margins heading into winter. For producers, the latest data signals strong plant efficiency and steady grind — but softer downstream demand may limit near-term price strength.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), ethanol output for the week ending November 28 rose 1.2 percent to 1.13 million barrels per day — equal to 47.29 million gallons daily and nearly 5 percent above last year. The four-week average also edged higher to 1.10 million barrels per day, an annualized pace of 16.94 billion gallons.

Stocks climbed 2.5 percent to 22.5 million barrels, though inventories remained slightly below year-ago levels. Builds occurred in every region except the Gulf Coast and West Coast.

The demand side weakened. Gasoline supplied to the market fell 4.6 percent to a 26-week low, and refiner/blender net inputs of ethanol dropped to their lowest level since early winter.

One bright spot was exports, which jumped 39 percent to 170,000 barrels per day — the highest in more than a year.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Strong plant output and rising exports contrast with softer domestic blending demand, suggesting margins are poised for volatility.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Higher ocean freight raises export costs just as global grain competition intensifies.
Weaker U.S. dairy prices come as value-added exports expand and ingredient inventories tighten, creating mixed market signals for producers.
WTO gauges point to agricultural raw materials trade growing more slowly than overall goods, reinforcing the need to manage export risk and monitor policy shifts closely.
Improved export prospects and higher crop prices strengthened future expectations despite continued caution about spending.
While the agriculture industry hoped details on proposed “bridge” payments for farmers would be released this week, Ag Secretary Brook Rollins said the USDA is still working with the White House on the finer points.
China’s renewed purchases signal improving sorghum demand at a time when export markets are otherwise uneven. Meanwhile, agriculture groups across the U.S, Canada, and Mexico want to protect close trade relations.
Strong demand supports sweet potatoes, but grading challenges and rising costs weigh on returns for Southeastern growers.
Pressure on grain storage capacity and stronger export positioning are pushing more grain onto railroads, highways, and river systems as logistics become a key bottleneck this fall.
The Cotton-4 are pushing hard for new value chain investments. Still, many U.S. cotton producers face unsustainable losses, and weakened regional textile capacity threatens the survival of the Carolina “dirt-to-shirt” supply chain.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Working capital is tightening for crop farms, increasing reliance on operating loans even as land values steady in the broader sector.
Buying a real Christmas tree directly supports U.S. farmers facing rising import competition, long production cycles, and weather-driven risks.
Milk output is rising, but steep drops in Class I–IV prices are tightening margins heading into 2026.
Tight cattle supplies continue to drive lower beef output despite heavier weights.
The Environmental Protection Agency confirms that new single-fluorinated pesticides are not PFAS and remain fully compliant with current safety standards.
Late harvest and tight supplies shape crop progress and agribusiness this week. Here is a regional snapshot of harvest pace, crop conditions, logistics, and livestock economics across U.S. agriculture for the week of Dec. 1, 2025.