Record U.S. Ethanol Output Contrasts with Softer Demand Trends

Strong plant output and rising exports contrast with softer domestic blending demand, suggesting margins are poised for volatility.

Farmland producing ethanol for the oil and gas industry. Railroad tankers cars lined up near a ethanol plant at sunset_Photo by photogrfx via AdobeStock_496174713.png

Photo by photogrfx via Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — U.S. ethanol plants pushed production to a new weekly record even as gasoline demand weakened, creating a more mixed outlook for margins heading into winter. For producers, the latest data signals strong plant efficiency and steady grind — but softer downstream demand may limit near-term price strength.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), ethanol output for the week ending November 28 rose 1.2 percent to 1.13 million barrels per day — equal to 47.29 million gallons daily and nearly 5 percent above last year. The four-week average also edged higher to 1.10 million barrels per day, an annualized pace of 16.94 billion gallons.

Stocks climbed 2.5 percent to 22.5 million barrels, though inventories remained slightly below year-ago levels. Builds occurred in every region except the Gulf Coast and West Coast.

The demand side weakened. Gasoline supplied to the market fell 4.6 percent to a 26-week low, and refiner/blender net inputs of ethanol dropped to their lowest level since early winter.

One bright spot was exports, which jumped 39 percent to 170,000 barrels per day — the highest in more than a year.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Strong plant output and rising exports contrast with softer domestic blending demand, suggesting margins are poised for volatility.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
President Donald Trump says Russia will supply millions of tons of diesel fuel to global markets in a deal he expects to lower prices for farmers, ranchers, and truckers.
Tight cattle supplies continue to put pressure on beef prices.
Ethanol exports reached a five-month high as distillers grains shipments hit an 11-year high.
Harvest is moving quickly as growers contend with higher fuel costs and uneven yields.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Weaker housing demand is putting more pressure on lumber and timber markets.
The funding will support research aimed at developing stronger crop varieties.
Weakening wells could put costly irrigation investments at risk across the southern High Plains.
Apparel orders are shifting among overseas suppliers as importers look to offset tariff costs.
Tighter slaughter supplies are increasing competition for market-ready cattle.
Imports remain the biggest challenge as domestic olive oil demand continues to grow.
Higher butterfat and protein levels can add hundreds of dollars in annual revenue per cow.
Drought and changing cattle supplies could keep pressure on producer margins through the end of the year.
China remained the leading destination for U.S. soybeans as weekly sales declined.
Lower milk and calf prices are providing less support as feed costs move higher.
Early imports under the temporary quota remain well below the amount allowed.