Record U.S. Ethanol Output Contrasts with Softer Demand Trends

Strong plant output and rising exports contrast with softer domestic blending demand, suggesting margins are poised for volatility.

Farmland producing ethanol for the oil and gas industry. Railroad tankers cars lined up near a ethanol plant at sunset_Photo by photogrfx via AdobeStock_496174713.png

Photo by photogrfx via Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — U.S. ethanol plants pushed production to a new weekly record even as gasoline demand weakened, creating a more mixed outlook for margins heading into winter. For producers, the latest data signals strong plant efficiency and steady grind — but softer downstream demand may limit near-term price strength.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), ethanol output for the week ending November 28 rose 1.2 percent to 1.13 million barrels per day — equal to 47.29 million gallons daily and nearly 5 percent above last year. The four-week average also edged higher to 1.10 million barrels per day, an annualized pace of 16.94 billion gallons.

Stocks climbed 2.5 percent to 22.5 million barrels, though inventories remained slightly below year-ago levels. Builds occurred in every region except the Gulf Coast and West Coast.

The demand side weakened. Gasoline supplied to the market fell 4.6 percent to a 26-week low, and refiner/blender net inputs of ethanol dropped to their lowest level since early winter.

One bright spot was exports, which jumped 39 percent to 170,000 barrels per day — the highest in more than a year.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Strong plant output and rising exports contrast with softer domestic blending demand, suggesting margins are poised for volatility.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Shifts in energy demand will influence fuel, fertilizer, and input costs.
Summer fuel rules cap ethanol demand and limit corn upside.
Rising costs and tighter margins are shaping the 2026 outlook.
Tariff refunds are underway, potentially returning billions to importers, as agriculture groups push for a larger role in trade policy and investigations.
Patrick De Haan with GasBuddy joined us to discuss diesel price volatility and what farmers can expect as geopolitical tensions continue to impact energy markets.
Tight supply and logistics issues may raise input costs.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Cotton may gain demand as polyester costs rise.
Trust with lenders strengthens farm financial decision-making.
U.S. pork production is rising slightly, driven by steady domestic demand, prices, and expanding global meat export markets beyond China.
A prolonged Iran ceasefire offers limited relief as fertilizer concerns persist, prompting U.S. policy shifts and driving farmers to reconsider crop acreage.
California rewards low-carbon ethanol, not higher blending volumes.
Strong corn exports support demand while soybeans lag.