LITTLE ROCK, Ark. (RFD-TV) — As fall harvest advances across the country without updated federal progress numbers due to the government shutdown, farm managers are turning their focus to yield results.
U.S. rice farmers are facing a challenging 2025 season, marked by flooding, extreme heat, and drought across the Mississippi Delta, which contrasts with a smoother growing year in California.
University of Arkansas Assistant Professor Ryan Loy reports that overall U.S. rice production is projected to decline by approximately 10 million cwt from 2024, reaching 208.8 million cwt. Acreage remains between 2 and 3 million acres, consistent with long-term rotation cycles, though high input costs and weaker prices continue to weigh on grower decisions.
Despite lower production, beginning stocks have increased sharply, driven by record-high grain yields in 2024. The September WASDE projects long-grain beginning stocks up 93 percent, while medium-grain supplies are expected to fall nearly 28 percent. Farm prices are forecast to decline to $12.00 per cwt for long grain and $12.50 for Southern medium and short grain, representing steep year-over-year drops.
Global competition remains fierce, with U.S. rice priced at $585 per ton, compared to offers from India, Pakistan, and Thailand near $360. Global demand softness and India’s resumed exports are adding pressure.
George Baird, with the American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers (ASFMRA), joined us on Wednesday’s Market Day Report to provide insight into how the season is shaping up.
In his interview with RFD-TV News, Baird shared updates on the rice harvest, noting progress and yield trends so far, and discussed how the cotton crop—once predicted to be strong—is performing as the harvest continues.
Looking ahead to 2026, Baird outlined some of the biggest concerns for producers, including the effects of lower commodity prices and how those trends could impact farmland values. Despite the uncertainty, he emphasized that managers remain focused on helping farmers navigate both current harvest challenges and long-term planning for future seasons.
