LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD-TV) — Milk prices are falling rapidly as expanding supplies overwhelm seasonal demand, creating growing financial pressure for U.S. dairy producers. According to Dr. David Anderson, livestock economist with Texas A&M AgriLife Extension, the usual holiday demand boost for butter and cheese failed to materialize this fall as milk production surged to multi-decade highs.
Strong milk prices in 2024 and lower feed costs encouraged herd expansion, while added processing capacity supported higher output. High cattle prices also contributed, boosting dairy revenues through higher cull cow values and record prices for beef-on-dairy calves. By September 2025, the U.S. dairy herd reached 9.581 million head — the largest since the early 1990s — while milk production per cow continued to climb.
Higher cow numbers and improved productivity pushed October milk output up nearly 4 percent from a year earlier. As supplies built, dairy product prices slid sharply. Butter, cheese, and nonfat dry milk prices all dropped well below last year, pulling Class III and Class IV milk prices lower.
Some herd contraction is expected, though strong cull and calf values may slow supply adjustments.
The U.S.-China summit raises hopes for stronger exports and reduced barriers, but U.S. ag players should remain strategically cautious until concrete volumes and certifications materialize.
October 30, 2025 10:37 AM
·
Global agriculture is stabilizing after years of price swings, with flat to modestly rising returns expected as productivity offsets slower demand growth.
October 29, 2025 03:35 PM
·
Tara Vander Dussen, fifth-generation dairy farmer, environmental scientist, and co-host of Discover Ag, joined RFD-TV to talk about her work in agriculture and her passion for sharing the story of dairy.
October 29, 2025 03:33 PM
·
Prepare for softer milk checks into winter, watch cull-cow values and timing, and stress-test cash flow as product prices recalibrate.
October 29, 2025 03:11 PM
·
Expect incremental near-term lift for feed grains, proteins, and ethanol as tariff cuts and smoother approvals translate into real orders.
October 29, 2025 03:04 PM
·
Pork producers are making Veterans Day a little brighter for Iowa’s military families.
October 29, 2025 01:29 PM
·
While there has been an increase in outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) this migration season, the CDC says the public health risk is low.
October 29, 2025 01:21 PM
·
Cattle markets are collapsing this week, and analysts say that several factors are at play. Consumer beef prices also remain near all-time highs, threatening long-term demand.
October 29, 2025 12:58 PM
·
Trade pacts with Malaysia and Cambodia unlock tariff-free and preferential lanes for key U.S. farm goods, expanding long-term demand in Southeast Asia.
October 28, 2025 02:08 PM
·
