LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) — A seemingly modest decline in the U.S. calf crop is setting the stage for tighter cattle supplies and rising competition through 2026 and into 2027. According to Hyrum Egbert, author of The Big Bad Packer newsletter, the two-percent drop reported in the latest USDA cattle inventory equates to roughly 512,000 fewer calves moving through the system.
That reduction is far from trivial. Egbert notes it represents about one full week of U.S. fed cattle production once typical feeding patterns are applied. While the impact will not hit all segments at once, it will compound steadily over time.
Feedyards are expected to feel the strain first. Calf-fed placements are likely to tighten from the first quarter through the third quarter of 2026, followed by pressure on yearling placements from mid-2026 into early 2027. As a result, keeping pens full becomes more difficult, and competition for available cattle intensifies.
Packing plants will feel the effects later. Thinner showlists and tighter fed supplies are projected to emerge in the second half of 2026 and extend well into 2027, keeping leverage tilted toward cattle owners.
Egbert describes the dynamic as a slow-moving supply vice — tightening quarter by quarter rather than delivering a single headline shock.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Even small declines in the calf crop translate into sustained supply pressure, supporting cattle prices over multiple years.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Falling feed costs and strong demand for butter could be good news for dairy farmers looking to get their finances back on track.
November 03, 2023 12:38 PM
·
Where the Food Comes From producer Donna Sanders takes us along on a behind-the-scenes look at filming the show’s newest episode, “Clemson Blue,” where university cheesemakers reveal how they put the “blue” in their award-winning blue cheese.
October 26, 2023 09:00 AM
·
It is in there, the mold — those rich blue veins in creamy blue cheese that make you either love it or loathe it — but how does it get there? This bonus scene from “Clemson Dairy,” Season 4, Episode 4 of
Where the Food Comes From, explains how and why that happens.
October 25, 2023 09:00 AM
·
No, it is not some new college course — Clemson has been making blue cheese since 1941, and the product has developed a worldwide following and won some pretty big awards. With good reason — it is fantastic stuff. It is also fascinating to see how it is made. Check out this sneak peek look at the latest episode of Where the Food Comes From, “Clemson Blue.”
October 24, 2023 11:32 AM
·
The machines do all the work at Hickory Hill Milk in South Carolina, and the pampered cows get on-demand service. The team at Where the Food Comes From shares a special, behind-the-scenes account filming the show’s newest episode, Robot Dairy, premiering this Friday, Oct. 20, 2023, at 9:30 p.m. ET on RFD-TV!
October 19, 2023 09:00 AM
·
How does a robot milk a cow?
October 18, 2023 09:00 AM
·
