LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) — A seemingly modest decline in the U.S. calf crop is setting the stage for tighter cattle supplies and rising competition through 2026 and into 2027. According to Hyrum Egbert, author of The Big Bad Packer newsletter, the two-percent drop reported in the latest USDA cattle inventory equates to roughly 512,000 fewer calves moving through the system.
That reduction is far from trivial. Egbert notes it represents about one full week of U.S. fed cattle production once typical feeding patterns are applied. While the impact will not hit all segments at once, it will compound steadily over time.
Feedyards are expected to feel the strain first. Calf-fed placements are likely to tighten from the first quarter through the third quarter of 2026, followed by pressure on yearling placements from mid-2026 into early 2027. As a result, keeping pens full becomes more difficult, and competition for available cattle intensifies.
Packing plants will feel the effects later. Thinner showlists and tighter fed supplies are projected to emerge in the second half of 2026 and extend well into 2027, keeping leverage tilted toward cattle owners.
Egbert describes the dynamic as a slow-moving supply vice — tightening quarter by quarter rather than delivering a single headline shock.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Even small declines in the calf crop translate into sustained supply pressure, supporting cattle prices over multiple years.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Trade volatility and shifting export destinations increase marketing risk for producers heading into 2026.
January 18, 2026 07:00 AM
·
RFD NEWS Correspondent Frank McCaffrey speaks with Texas’s Sen. Ted Cruz and Rep. Vicente Gonzalez about USMCA renegotiation and its impact on U.S.–Mexico agriculture trade.
January 17, 2026 05:00 PM
·
Rising rural business confidence supports local ag economies, but taxes and labor shortages remain key constraints.
January 17, 2026 02:00 PM
·
The Midland County Junior Livestock Show in West Texas features a competitive steer showcase highlighting top-quality cattle and the accomplishments of driven youth exhibitors.
January 16, 2026 01:48 PM
·
National Corn Growers Association Chief Economist Krista Swanson discusses corn supply pressures, market fundamentals, policy considerations, and producer outlook for the year ahead.
January 16, 2026 01:13 PM
·
January 16, 2026 09:57 AM
·
Soft equipment sales signal cautious farm spending as producers prioritize cash flow over expansion.
January 16, 2026 07:00 AM
·
Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig discusses market conditions, policy priorities, and his outlook for agriculture moving forward.
January 15, 2026 01:36 PM
·
Congressman Dusty Johnson of South Dakota joined us to discuss key ag policy developments and his outlook for agriculture in 2026.
January 15, 2026 12:51 PM
·
