Soybean demand will suffer this year due to China, analysts warn

Economists are keeping a close eye on the soy market in the coming days. They say all of the back and forth with China has put demand on shaky ground.

“They’re doing all they can to go elsewhere. And we’ve got a rapid expansion going on in the world of soybean crushing, in skiing terms, we might be getting out over our skis, in terms of how much soybean oil we hope to produce relative to the mandates and tax credits that are boosting soy oil demand for renewable diesel,” said Ed Usset with University of Minnesota.

Usset wars it could be a tough couple of years for the soyb complex as they work out rebuilding demand.

Some traders are trying to look on the bright side. Frequent Market Day Report guest Brian Hoops says it all needs to be taken in context.

“Corn really isn’t, probably won’t be, affected by these tariffs all that much because only 15% of our crop is exported, and a lot of that goes to Mexico and will most likely reach an agreement with them. It’s soybeans, which we saw on Friday’s sharp losses, that could be impacted by these tariffs because over 40% of our soybean crop is exported, so subject to tariffs in one form or another.”

Hoops says h is hopeful other countries come to agreements with the U.S. in the coming weeks.

Related Stories
Nitrogen and phosphate markets are tightening ahead of spring, keeping fertilizer costs elevated while crop prices lag.
In the U.S. and Canada, reduced planted acres—not yield losses—led to a decline in potato production, while Mexico saw modest gains due to increased yields and harvested areas.
AFBF Economist Samantha Ayoub discusses the latest data on Chapter 12 farm bankruptcy filings and what the troubling trend signals for the farm economy. At the same time, bigger loans and higher rates are squeezing working capital and increasing financial risk.
Corn demand remains supportive, but weaker soybean buying limits overall export momentum.
China’s reliance on imported soybeans remains entrenched, shaping global demand and trade leverage.
Cuba remains a steady, nearby buyer of U.S. poultry, pork, dairy, and staples, but legal and compliance risks could still affect shipping and payment channels.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

American Farmland Trust shares guidance, research, and policy solutions to help farmers navigate the growing threat of PFAS, or “forever chemicals,” contaminating U.S. farmland.
Dr. Jeffrey Gold, president of the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, joins us on Rural Health Matters to discuss winter safety reminders and preparedness.
ASFMRA’s Dennis Reyman discusses farmer sentiment, land values, and how global and financial pressures are shaping decision-making in the ag land market.
Richard Gupton of the Agricultural Retailers Association discusses the EPA’s new decision on over-the-top Dicamba and what it means for growers this year.
Gretchen Kuck of the National Corn Growers Association joined us to discuss the Ag Coalition for USMCA’s report findings and expectations ahead of the upcoming USMCA review.
Agriculture Shows
Hosted by Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady and RFD News Markets Specialist Tony St. James, Commodity Talk delivers expert insight into the day’s ag commodity markets just before the CME opens. Only on RFD-TV and Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147.
A look at the news, weather and commodities headlines that drove agriculture markets in the past week.
Everything profits from prairie. Soil, air, water — and all kinds of life! Learn how you can improve your land with prairie restoration, cover crops and prairie strips, while growing your bottom line.
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.