NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — Nitrogen and phosphate markets are firming sharply heading into spring, raising cost concerns for producers already facing flat grain prices, according to analysis from Stone-X Vice President of Fertilizer Josh Linville.
India has announced another major urea purchase tender targeting 1.5 million tons for shipment through March 31. While widely expected, the move is seen as supportive of global prices and could tighten supplies just as North American farmers finalize spring planting. Urea values at the Gulf have climbed from a December low near $350 per ton to as high as $465. That compares with $389 a year ago. UAN is trading near $325 versus $265 last year, and Midwest ammonia averages $695 compared to $605 last year — even as grain prices remain lower year over year.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a key geopolitical risk. Three of the top ten global urea exporters and three of the top ten ammonia exporters depend on that corridor, along with Saudi phosphate shipments. Any disruption could significantly impact fertilizer flows.
Phosphate markets are also firm. Global prices are up roughly $20, and limited Chinese exports — typically 8 to 10 million tons annually but just 5.3 million last year — leave a potential supply gap. High ammonia and sulfur costs are limiting downside price potential, even if values soften.
Potash remains comparatively stable and better aligned with grain economics.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Nitrogen and phosphate markets are tightening ahead of spring, keeping fertilizer costs elevated while crop prices lag.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
AFBF Economist Samantha Ayoub discusses the latest data on Chapter 12 farm bankruptcy filings and what the troubling trend signals for the farm economy. At the same time, bigger loans and higher rates are squeezing working capital and increasing financial risk.
February 12, 2026 04:26 PM
·
Corn demand remains supportive, but weaker soybean buying limits overall export momentum.
February 12, 2026 03:29 PM
·
China’s reliance on imported soybeans remains entrenched, shaping global demand and trade leverage.
February 12, 2026 10:46 AM
·
Agriculture remains a key drag on regional growth amid weak prices and policy uncertainty.
February 12, 2026 08:00 AM
·
While access to China remains uncertain, U.S. beef exporters are finding resilience and opportunity in other global markets, which could help maintain industry value and expand export opportunities.
February 11, 2026 02:41 PM
·
Mike Spier, president and CEO of U.S. Wheat Associates, discusses the new U.S.-Bangladesh trade agreement and its potential benefits for U.S. wheat growers.
February 11, 2026 12:37 PM
·
Strong corn exports offer support, while soybeans and wheat remain weighed down by ample global supplies, according to the USDA’s latest WASDE report for February.
February 10, 2026 04:25 PM
·
Kevin Charleston of Specialty Risk Insurance discusses the importance of grain bin safety and joint efforts with Nationwide to provide farmers and first responders with access to critical, life-saving rescue tubes.
February 10, 2026 03:57 PM
·
RealAg Radio host Sean Haney outlines the Trump Administration’s current trade priorities and what meaningful market expansion looks like for farmers.
February 10, 2026 03:08 PM
·
