Soybean demand will suffer this year due to China, analysts warn

Economists are keeping a close eye on the soy market in the coming days. They say all of the back and forth with China has put demand on shaky ground.

“They’re doing all they can to go elsewhere. And we’ve got a rapid expansion going on in the world of soybean crushing, in skiing terms, we might be getting out over our skis, in terms of how much soybean oil we hope to produce relative to the mandates and tax credits that are boosting soy oil demand for renewable diesel,” said Ed Usset with University of Minnesota.

Usset wars it could be a tough couple of years for the soyb complex as they work out rebuilding demand.

Some traders are trying to look on the bright side. Frequent Market Day Report guest Brian Hoops says it all needs to be taken in context.

“Corn really isn’t, probably won’t be, affected by these tariffs all that much because only 15% of our crop is exported, and a lot of that goes to Mexico and will most likely reach an agreement with them. It’s soybeans, which we saw on Friday’s sharp losses, that could be impacted by these tariffs because over 40% of our soybean crop is exported, so subject to tariffs in one form or another.”

Hoops says h is hopeful other countries come to agreements with the U.S. in the coming weeks.

Related Stories
Strong White House backing supports ethanol demand, but timing now hinges on Congress resolving procedural — at the same time as they push toward a spending bill to avert another federal government shutdown.
Corn and soybean exports continue to anchor weekly inspection totals, with China maintaining a visible role, while wheat and sorghum remain more dependent on regional and seasonal demand shifts.
Lewis Williamson of HTS Commodities joined us with an update on the historic winter storm impacts and his outlook on today’s ag markets.
Brooks York with AgriSompo joined us with his outlook on crop insurance and risk management following the recent winter storm that tore through most of the United States, including the Midwest.
Payment totals alone do not show financial stress — production costs and net losses complete the picture.
Year-round E15 remains on the table, but procedural caution and competing regional interests pushed action into a slower, negotiated path.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Global pork production is expected to rise in the first half of 2026, despite trade volatility stemming from shifting import policies and swine disease pressures.
Clear right-to-repair guidance reduces downtime, repair costs, and operational risk.
Tennessee State Veterinarian Dr. Samantha Batey joined us with the latest on biosecurity efforts and the state’s new “Know Before You Show” initiative.
Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller discusses the state’s latest efforts to prevent the New World screwworm from reaching Texas.
Economists are also closely watching how policy decisions in Washington could influence markets moving forward. Analysts say deferred futures for corn, soybeans, and wheat suggest markets are operating near break-even levels, not at prices that would encourage expanded production.
House Agriculture Committee Chairman “GT” Thompson is pushing a “Farm Bill 2.0.”
Agriculture Shows
Hosted by Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady and RFD News Markets Specialist Tony St. James, Commodity Talk delivers expert insight into the day’s ag commodity markets just before the CME opens. Only on RFD-TV and Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147.
A look at the news, weather and commodities headlines that drove agriculture markets in the past week.
Everything profits from prairie. Soil, air, water — and all kinds of life! Learn how you can improve your land with prairie restoration, cover crops and prairie strips, while growing your bottom line.
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.