Economists are keeping a close eye on the soy market in the coming days. They say all of the back and forth with China has put demand on shaky ground.
“They’re doing all they can to go elsewhere. And we’ve got a rapid expansion going on in the world of soybean crushing, in skiing terms, we might be getting out over our skis, in terms of how much soybean oil we hope to produce relative to the mandates and tax credits that are boosting soy oil demand for renewable diesel,” said Ed Usset with University of Minnesota.
Usset wars it could be a tough couple of years for the soyb complex as they work out rebuilding demand.
Some traders are trying to look on the bright side. Frequent Market Day Report guest Brian Hoops says it all needs to be taken in context.
“Corn really isn’t, probably won’t be, affected by these tariffs all that much because only 15% of our crop is exported, and a lot of that goes to Mexico and will most likely reach an agreement with them. It’s soybeans, which we saw on Friday’s sharp losses, that could be impacted by these tariffs because over 40% of our soybean crop is exported, so subject to tariffs in one form or another.”
Hoops says h is hopeful other countries come to agreements with the U.S. in the coming weeks.
Farm CPA Paul Neiffer joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to discuss the implications for farmers.
October 30, 2025 02:37 PM
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Chris Bliley with Growth Energy discusses ongoing concerns about U.S. ethanol exports and the expansion of market access promised under the Phase One deal between the U.S. and China.
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“It does not extinguish right away here — in any sort of sense — the real profitability concerns and people’s ability to pay bills and get to the other side of this in the very short term. This is where the skepticism builds.”
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U.S. Senator Roger Marshall (R-KS) shares his perspective on the U.S.-China trade developments and their potential impact on American producers, farmers, and ranchers.
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With core input inflation still hovering high, growers and retailers should plan pricing and promotions with tighter margins in mind — target early sales, leverage bundle deals, and secure logistics ahead of peak Halloween demand.
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The U.S.-China summit raises hopes for stronger exports and reduced barriers, but U.S. ag players should remain strategically cautious until concrete volumes and certifications materialize.
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