Soybean demand will suffer this year due to China, analysts warn

Economists are keeping a close eye on the soy market in the coming days. They say all of the back and forth with China has put demand on shaky ground.

“They’re doing all they can to go elsewhere. And we’ve got a rapid expansion going on in the world of soybean crushing, in skiing terms, we might be getting out over our skis, in terms of how much soybean oil we hope to produce relative to the mandates and tax credits that are boosting soy oil demand for renewable diesel,” said Ed Usset with University of Minnesota.

Usset wars it could be a tough couple of years for the soyb complex as they work out rebuilding demand.

Some traders are trying to look on the bright side. Frequent Market Day Report guest Brian Hoops says it all needs to be taken in context.

“Corn really isn’t, probably won’t be, affected by these tariffs all that much because only 15% of our crop is exported, and a lot of that goes to Mexico and will most likely reach an agreement with them. It’s soybeans, which we saw on Friday’s sharp losses, that could be impacted by these tariffs because over 40% of our soybean crop is exported, so subject to tariffs in one form or another.”

Hoops says h is hopeful other countries come to agreements with the U.S. in the coming weeks.

Related Stories
Bangladesh’s buying surge offers temporary relief for U.S. farmers facing weaker Chinese demand, highlighting how global politics can reshape export outlets overnight.
Rising demand for Comfort Colors t-shirts reinforces the pull for U.S.-grown cotton, linking rural fiber production to a fast-growing mainstream apparel brand.
Australia’s expanding harvest and global oversupply are keeping wheat and barley prices capped, though canola markets may hold firmer on shifting oilseed demand.
Bioethanol continues to gain ground as the bridge fuel connecting agriculture, aviation, and maritime industries in the global shift toward lower-carbon energy.
Expanding bioethanol use strengthens rural economies, supports farm markets, and positions U.S. agriculture at the center of global low-carbon trade.
Elizabeth Strom with the American Society of Farm Managers & Rural Appraisers (ASFMRA) joined us to share the latest on harvest progress and market activity in her area.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Eastern Region VP Joey Nowotny of Delaware joins us on FFA Today to talk about his new leadership role and an exciting year ahead for the National FFA Organization.
Cattle imports from Mexico remain stalled amid the New World screwworm outbreak. At the same time, Tyson closures add pressure on Nebraska producers and markets ahead of the USDA’s upcoming Cattle on Feed Report.
Georgia has regained its HPAI-free status after a swift response to October’s detection. Commissioner Tyler Harper urges producers to stay vigilant and maintain biosecurity.
While this month’s WASDE report will not include updated figures on U.S. crop size, officials say it will offer a clearer picture of crop conditions in the Southern Hemisphere.
USTR Jamieson Greer signals a narrower trade deal with China, adding more market uncertainty. The Farm Bureau also supports reviewing China’s missed trade commitments under the Phase One.
Southern producers head into 2026 with thin margins, tighter credit, and rising agronomic risks despite scattered yield improvements.
Agriculture Shows
Hosted by Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady and RFD News Markets Specialist Tony St. James, Commodity Talk delivers expert insight into the day’s ag commodity markets just before the CME opens. Only on RFD-TV and Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147.
A look at the news, weather and commodities headlines that drove agriculture markets in the past week.
Everything profits from prairie. Soil, air, water — and all kinds of life! Learn how you can improve your land with prairie restoration, cover crops and prairie strips, while growing your bottom line.
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.