NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — Soybean prices tend to follow repeatable seasonal patterns that can help producers evaluate marketing risk and opportunity throughout the year. While prices are influenced by many factors, seasonality provides a baseline expectation of how prices often behave as supplies build and draw down, informing timing decisions beyond day-to-day volatility.
Research summarized by Dr. Grant Gardner, Assistant Extension Professor at the University of Kentucky, examines national soybean cash prices from 2010 to 2025 using a seasonal price index. Results show prices are typically weakest near harvest, strengthen through winter and spring, and often peak in late spring or early summer before easing ahead of new-crop supplies.
From an operational standpoint, this pattern suggests post-harvest marketing opportunities frequently outperform harvest-time sales. However, not every year follows the average path, and producers must weigh seasonal tendencies against current market signals.
Only three of the past 15 years—2015, 2019, and 2024—saw soybean prices stronger at harvest than later in the marketing year, driven by factors like tight stocks, weather risk, or trade uncertainty.
Seasonality is not a rule but a decision-making tool that works best when combined with fundamentals, cash flow needs, and risk tolerance.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Seasonal price patterns can inform soybean marketing timing, particularly when harvest prices appear unusually strong or weak.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Texas A&M livestock economist Dr. David Anderson joins Tony St. James to discuss the geopolitical tensions and U.S.-Mexico border closure that are leading to sharp swings in the cattle market.
October 31, 2025 12:50 PM
·
Caleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Association (ASA), shares his reaction to news of soybean sales to China, which is considered both “welcome news” and a return to near-normal trade relations.
October 31, 2025 12:26 PM
·
Rabobank’s outlook signals a tightening margin environment, emphasizing the need for cost control, trade stability, and clearer policy signals heading into 2026.
October 31, 2025 11:44 AM
·
Treat succession like any major crop — plan early, document clearly, and calibrate cash flow so the next generation can succeed.
October 31, 2025 11:21 AM
·
Farm CPA Paul Neiffer joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to discuss the implications for farmers.
October 30, 2025 02:37 PM
·
“It does not extinguish right away here — in any sort of sense — the real profitability concerns and people’s ability to pay bills and get to the other side of this in the very short term. This is where the skepticism builds.”
October 30, 2025 02:20 PM
·
