NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Global coarse grain production for the 2025–26 marketing year is projected slightly lower, but strong U.S. corn exports are providing a key source of support for domestic markets. USDA estimates global coarse grain output at 1.576 billion metric tons, trimmed on weaker corn production in Ukraine, Nigeria, and Canada, partially offset by higher global barley production.
For U.S. corn producers, the most significant adjustment is on the demand side. USDA raised its 2025–26 corn export forecast by 125 million bushels to 3.2 billion, citing robust foreign demand and a historically fast shipping pace early in the marketing year. First-quarter corn exports are now expected to approach 800 million bushels — nearly double the typical seasonal average and the strongest Q1 pace on record.
Reduced Black Sea supplies, logistical challenges, and slower-than-expected shipments from Argentina have constrained export competitiveness. Together, those factors have shifted global buyers toward U.S. corn.
Domestic corn supply projections remain unchanged ahead of final harvest updates, and the season-average farm price is held at $4.00 per bushel.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Record pace corn exports are helping stabilize prices despite softer global grain production and ongoing supply competition.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Here is a regional snapshot of harvest pace, crop conditions, logistics, and livestock economics across U.S. agriculture for the week of Monday, November 17, 2025.
November 17, 2025 05:05 PM
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Ethanol markets remain mixed — weaker production and blend rates are being partially balanced by stronger exports as winter demand patterns take shape.
November 17, 2025 01:24 PM
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Tariff relief may soften grocery prices, but it also intensifies competition for U.S. fruit, vegetable, and beef producers as cheaper imports regain market share.
November 17, 2025 01:20 PM
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Strong U.S. yields and steady demand leave most major crops well supplied, keeping price pressure in place unless usage strengthens or weather shifts outlooks.
November 17, 2025 01:17 PM
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While agriculture doesn’t predict every recession, the sector’s long history of turning down before the broader economy
November 16, 2025 12:00 PM
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ARC-CO delivers the bulk of 2024 support, offering key margin relief as producers manage tight operating conditions.
November 15, 2025 12:00 PM
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USDA’s steady yields and heavy global stocks keep grains range-bound unless demand firms or South American weather becomes a real threat.
November 14, 2025 05:26 PM
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USMEF’s Jay Theiler discusses his leadership role in representing U.S. beef and pork and provides an update on this week’s conference in Indianapolis.
November 14, 2025 03:36 PM
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As economic pressures continue to squeeze agriculture, ag lenders are signaling a more cautious outlook for farm profitability heading into next year, particularly among grain producers facing lower commodity prices and higher operating costs.
November 14, 2025 02:10 PM
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