NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Global coarse grain production for the 2025–26 marketing year is projected slightly lower, but strong U.S. corn exports are providing a key source of support for domestic markets. USDA estimates global coarse grain output at 1.576 billion metric tons, trimmed on weaker corn production in Ukraine, Nigeria, and Canada, partially offset by higher global barley production.
For U.S. corn producers, the most significant adjustment is on the demand side. USDA raised its 2025–26 corn export forecast by 125 million bushels to 3.2 billion, citing robust foreign demand and a historically fast shipping pace early in the marketing year. First-quarter corn exports are now expected to approach 800 million bushels — nearly double the typical seasonal average and the strongest Q1 pace on record.
Reduced Black Sea supplies, logistical challenges, and slower-than-expected shipments from Argentina have constrained export competitiveness. Together, those factors have shifted global buyers toward U.S. corn.
Domestic corn supply projections remain unchanged ahead of final harvest updates, and the season-average farm price is held at $4.00 per bushel.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Record pace corn exports are helping stabilize prices despite softer global grain production and ongoing supply competition.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
February 03, 2026 12:58 PM
Global pork production is expected to rise in the first half of 2026, despite trade volatility stemming from shifting import policies and swine disease pressures.
February 03, 2026 12:50 PM
·
Clearer 45Z rules favor U.S. oilseeds, but final RFS volumes remain critical to locking in demand.
February 03, 2026 12:39 PM
·
Even small declines in the calf crop translate into sustained supply pressure, supporting cattle prices over multiple years.
February 03, 2026 12:22 PM
·
Economists are also closely watching how policy decisions in Washington could influence markets moving forward. Analysts say deferred futures for corn, soybeans, and wheat suggest markets are operating near break-even levels, not at prices that would encourage expanded production.
February 02, 2026 12:13 PM
·
Winter Weather And Markets Reshape Agriculture Nationwide This Week
February 02, 2026 12:04 PM
·
Shrinking sheep numbers contrast with gradual goat expansion, signaling tighter lamb supplies but steadier growth potential for meat goats.
February 02, 2026 10:29 AM
·
Smaller cow numbers and a declining calf crop point to prolonged tight cattle supplies, limiting near-term herd rebuilding potential.
January 30, 2026 03:42 PM
·
Strong rail demand and higher fuel costs raise transportation risk even as barge and export flows stabilize.
January 30, 2026 02:21 PM
·
