“Surprised they aren’t higher": Economists are caught off guard by the lack of fertilizer price action

Fertilizer costs are also top of mind during geopolitical turmoil.

Josh Linville with StoneX says the numbers are telling an interesting story right now.

“Truthfully, I have been surprised prices haven’t been higher. What other things have been keeping a lid on these fertilizer prices from going higher than where they are today is lower grain prices. Obviously, farmers everywhere are talking about the fact that grain prices are not great, they’re not attractive, and so that is keeping the lid because I think the fertilizer industry knows the farmers just can’t buy these values, certainly not ahead of next spring.”

Fertilizer prices have been relatively steady over the last few days. Analysts with DTN found no significant moves last week, with anhydrous falling in price over the last month. Seven of the eight major types are more expensive than a year ago, with urea holding 25 percent above 2024. Potash, on the other hand, is lower in price, falling around seven percent on the year.

Related Stories
Energy risks could reshape global ag trade flows.
Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz disrupt fertilizer shipments, raising costs and creating uncertainty for U.S. farmers ahead of planting season.
Mike Steenhoek with the Soy Transportation Coalition discusses supply chain disruptions, rising costs, and the potential impact on agriculture as farmers navigate ongoing global uncertainty.
Suderman joins Tony St. James in the RFD Studios to discuss how geopolitical tensions are triggering global transport disruptions, new inflation pressures, and other challenges for agriculture to navigate.
Farm Bureau economist Dr. Faith Parum explains how geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East could further tighten fertilizer movement, increase fuel costs, and complicate planting decisions for U.S. farmers this spring.
Farm CPA Paul Nieffer explains the Farmer Bridge Assistance payment limits, provides clarity on new legislation, and offers advice for producers considering business structure adjustments.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Brooks York with Agri-Sompo discusses how this year’s pricing period played out and what it could mean for farmers heading into the end of the season.
An import lag for ground beef will likely look different than last year’s egg shortage. The difference comes down to biosecurity and market flexibility.
Persistently low Mississippi River levels are turning logistics challenges into pricing risks — tightening margins for grain producers and exporters across the heartland.
Pull out the popcorn! We’ve rounded up the 10 best cowboy movies of all time.