The ag trade deficit “is a real thing” and shouldn’t be ignored, ag economists say

While tariffs have dominated the headlines recently, ag economists say the trade deficit is not something to ignore.

“Yeah, we do have a trade deficit overall in the U.S. economy, and we also have a trade deficit in agricultural and food products. The deficit of agriculture and food products is a story of very different worlds. On the one hand, we have a big surplus in major commodities like wheat, corn, soybeans, cotton, pork, and many other products, but we have a deficit in things like fruits, vegetables, and many processed products. So, again, those have impacts on different parts of U.S. agriculture, and to try and address that deficit is a high priority of the current administration,” said Pat Westhoff, director of the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri.

Westhoff says while the tariff situation has calmed, they are still having a role in market action. He says there is no question that China will now look elsewhere for commodities like soybeans.

“With the current tariffs that are put in place by China, over 125 percent, that makes it almost impossible for the U.S. to sell soybeans to China. That market will be dominated even more than it already is by Brazil and a couple of other major players outside of the US. So, then the question becomes whether we were able to pick up enough markets elsewhere in the world to offset the loss of the Chinese market. A lot of people are hoping that the current very high levels of tariffs will not persist, that there be some sort of agreement that will at least bring those tariff levels down if not eliminate them entirely.”

Progress could be on the horizon. Bloomberg reports Chinese officials will come to the table if certain demands are met. So far, more than 100 countries have indicated they are willing to negotiate.

Related Stories
The U.S. trade deal with Argentina creates new export opportunities for U.S. livestock and crop producers but also raises competitive concerns.
Incremental trade clarity with India could support select U.S. ag exports, but major gains hinge on future market-access talks.
The phone call injected optimism into the soybean market, but actual Chinese buying and its timing will ultimately determine the extent of U.S. agricultural export benefits.
China-led demand continues to anchor soybean and sorghum exports despite weekly swings.
Traders say that shift could eventually prompt the USDA to scale back soybean export projections, noting the outlook differs greatly for other grain commodities.
USDA Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Luke Lindberg joined us with a recap of the Malaysia trade mission and a look at USDA’s broader trade strategy moving forward.
From tariff talks in Europe to SCOTUS uncertainty and rising farm losses, analysts say policy and global supply will shape grain markets in the year ahead.
Analysts say a Supreme Court decision on tariffs could reshape protein markets, strain U.S.-China trade, and force farmers to rethink global demand strategies.
President Donald Trump speaks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, addressing SNAP spending, tariff threats against Europe, market reactions, and the upcoming USMCA review.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

While there has been an increase in outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) this migration season, the CDC says the public health risk is low.
Cattle markets are collapsing this week, and analysts say that several factors are at play. Consumer beef prices also remain near all-time highs, threatening long-term demand.
If confirmed, early Chinese buys tighten nearby Gulf/PNW capacity and could bump basis in export-oriented regions.
Alan Bjerga, Senior Vice President of Communications with the National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF), shares updates and resources available to dairy producers.
Culver’s Senior Marketing Manager Alison Demmer joins us to share the company’s deep-rooted partnership with FFA and ongoing commitment to support agriculture education.
Chancey Williams joins us in the studio to share his history with FFA as we continue our Countdown to Convention sponsored by Culver’s.