The ag trade deficit “is a real thing” and shouldn’t be ignored, ag economists say

While tariffs have dominated the headlines recently, ag economists say the trade deficit is not something to ignore.

“Yeah, we do have a trade deficit overall in the U.S. economy, and we also have a trade deficit in agricultural and food products. The deficit of agriculture and food products is a story of very different worlds. On the one hand, we have a big surplus in major commodities like wheat, corn, soybeans, cotton, pork, and many other products, but we have a deficit in things like fruits, vegetables, and many processed products. So, again, those have impacts on different parts of U.S. agriculture, and to try and address that deficit is a high priority of the current administration,” said Pat Westhoff, director of the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri.

Westhoff says while the tariff situation has calmed, they are still having a role in market action. He says there is no question that China will now look elsewhere for commodities like soybeans.

“With the current tariffs that are put in place by China, over 125 percent, that makes it almost impossible for the U.S. to sell soybeans to China. That market will be dominated even more than it already is by Brazil and a couple of other major players outside of the US. So, then the question becomes whether we were able to pick up enough markets elsewhere in the world to offset the loss of the Chinese market. A lot of people are hoping that the current very high levels of tariffs will not persist, that there be some sort of agreement that will at least bring those tariff levels down if not eliminate them entirely.”

Progress could be on the horizon. Bloomberg reports Chinese officials will come to the table if certain demands are met. So far, more than 100 countries have indicated they are willing to negotiate.

Related Stories
The U.S. trade deal with Argentina creates new export opportunities for U.S. livestock and crop producers but also raises competitive concerns.
Incremental trade clarity with India could support select U.S. ag exports, but major gains hinge on future market-access talks.
The phone call injected optimism into the soybean market, but actual Chinese buying and its timing will ultimately determine the extent of U.S. agricultural export benefits.
China-led demand continues to anchor soybean and sorghum exports despite weekly swings.
Traders say that shift could eventually prompt the USDA to scale back soybean export projections, noting the outlook differs greatly for other grain commodities.
USDA Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Luke Lindberg joined us with a recap of the Malaysia trade mission and a look at USDA’s broader trade strategy moving forward.
From tariff talks in Europe to SCOTUS uncertainty and rising farm losses, analysts say policy and global supply will shape grain markets in the year ahead.
Analysts say a Supreme Court decision on tariffs could reshape protein markets, strain U.S.-China trade, and force farmers to rethink global demand strategies.
President Donald Trump speaks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, addressing SNAP spending, tariff threats against Europe, market reactions, and the upcoming USMCA review.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

National FFA Secretary Luke Jennings joins us to share how he’s feeling heading into the big week and reflect on his year of service.
FFA education inspires Chelsey Keiser to become the first female horse jockey.
Ryan Dunsbergen, soybean product manager for Golden Harvest, shares an overview of their new soybean seed lineup and what growers can expect in 2026.
Bioethanol is becoming a global standard. For growers, that boom comes as drops in Mississippi River levels and in soybean demand occur in tandem, leaving barge space for corn and wheat.
The government shutdown has touched nearly every sector of the ag industry since it began, and now impacts are spilling over into dairy.
With China halting U.S. soybean purchases and talks tied to broader strategic issues, growers face renewed export uncertainty.