Low commodity prices are dealing another blow to the ag trade deficit. USDA is now preparing for the third straight year of losses.
The Department expects the ag trade deficit to hit $42.5 billion when the fiscal year starts October 1st, which is a drop of $4 billion from this year, and marks the third straight year of declines since hitting a record low in 2022. Ag imports are expected to increase by around $8 billion.
The economy is tightening its grip on the ag industry. The Chicago Fed says farmland values are slowing in their district, and credit challenges are starting to appear. Fed policy advisers say repayment rates are also starting to slow.
Despite the challenges, they say farm balance sheets have been strong overall, even with less working capital.
Ag Commissioner Sid Miller and Rep. Henry Cuellar say rising costs and generational shifts are making it harder to keep young producers in the industry.
USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom joins us to discuss China’s renewed access for U.S. beef facilities, the outlook for exports, and key conversations taking place at this week’s Spring Conference.
Operating debt remains manageable in many areas, but rising non-accrual loans show why careful cash-flow management matters in 2026.
Strong rail and ocean demand support grain movement, but weak barge traffic and high diesel costs keep freight pressure elevated.
The challenge is adoption.
Corn exports remained active the week of May 7, but weak soybean, cotton, and sorghum sales kept attention on China and late-year demand.
